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SALT LAKE CITY — Four teams from the consensus AP Top 25 lost games over the weekend, but there was little to upset the overall ballot this week in a fairly standard week of play.
I didn’t have Kansas State, which lost to Oklahoma State, ranked in my previous ballot, so there was no shakeup there; however, USC becomes a casualty after a 28-14 loss to Washington. Cal and Virginia remain ranked in my ballot this week, but there are still questions up in the air.
Here’s a brief look at how my ballot took shape this week:
My methodology: Each week I compare my ballot with that of the consensus Top 25 poll, and factor in game results, team and opponent efficiencies, and metrics such as SP+ to form my weekly ballot.
Rising: Alabama, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Wake Forest
It’s only one spot, but Alabama moved up to No. 1 in my ballot this week. This isn’t some monumental shift, but a slight recalibration to the season. Alabama features one of the most efficient programs in the country and have edged out Clemson by a slim margin. It’s time for Alabama to move into the 1A spot and Clemson to take the 1B spot.
I’ve had Oklahoma State ranked the last few weeks, but they remain outside the consensus Top 25. With their win over former No. 24 Kansas State, the Cowboys have shown enough to be considered a Top 25 team. I’ll keep beating my drum here for the Cowboys until they lose (beyond a narrow loss to a ranked Texas team earlier in the season).
Falling: Cal, Texas A&M, USC
Cal had the spotlight, a solid defense and a conference-leading No. 15 ranking in the consensus poll coming into the week. But with quarterback Chase Garbers injured in a loss to Arizona State, that leaves their season in question. I’m willing to give Cal the benefit of the doubt for one more week, but they’re on very thin ice. If Garbers can’t play, it’s merely a formality for me to remove them from next week’s ballot.
Added: Wake Forest
Wake Forest has been on my radar for some time, but I wanted to see how they handled their schedule before I fully considered them for my ballot. After a narrow win over Boston College, I’m willing to take a shot at the Demon Deacons, even if it’s short lived. And it won’t get any easier with several teams on the bubble below them that could easily steal their spot.
Dropped out: USC
USC is hot and cold. One minute they look good and then the next they can’t seem to get out of their own way. Until they can find some consistency, the Trojans have likely seen the last of their Top 25 days for a while. Things could change for the Trojans, but it’s doubtful. USC lost to a solid Washington team — which isn’t the worst team to lose to, but the lack of hope around the program is hard to ignore.
Teams in consideration: Appalachian State, Arizona State, Baylor, Memphis, Minnesota, Missouri, SMU
Appalachian State is knocking on the door and ready for a chance to be ranked, but I’m not sold just yet. They’re undefeated, but I think I need one more week, at least, to see how they do. Their big win on the season is a 3-point victory over North Carolina, but the rest of their schedule leaves much to be desired. Beat Louisiana this upcoming week and I’ll reassess.
Baylor, Memphis, Minnesota and SMU each have a decent shot, as well, as undefeated programs still unranked.
As always, hit me up on Twitter @JFurKSL if you have any questions about my ballot.
