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PROVO — Through four games of the 2019 college football season, BYU has played the 10th-most difficult schedule, according to Jeff Sagarin of USA Today, and the Cougars are the only team in America to open the season with four-straight Power 5 opponents.
Navigating the complex, tricky and brutal first month of the season would be perplexing for any program — and to do it with minimal injuries (with apologies to Ty’Son Williams, Zayne Anderson and Hank Tuipulotu) en route to a 2-2 start has proven to be a minor upset, according to most predictive metrics. The Cougars are one of only five teams in the country with at least two wins against a top-10 schedule.
For the first time this season, the Cougars will face a non-Power 5 opponent, a team BYU has faced only once in its history, and a small school from the Rust Belt of America.
But it doesn’t get any easier.
Sure, Toledo (2-1) does not have the football history or name-brand recognition of Tennessee, Southern California or even Utah. But the Rockets were among the preseason favorites to win the Mid-American Conference, the MAC West favorite and second in the conference in first-place votes (15) in the preseason coaches' poll behind Ohio (24).
Don’t sleep on the Rockets, because the Rockets aren’t sleeping on BYU.
BYU (2-2) vs. Toledo (2-1)
Coaches: Kalani Sitake (4th year, BYU); Jason Candle (4th year, Mount Union)
Kickoff: 10 a.m. MDT
Streaming: ESPN+ (Michael Reghi, Dustin Fox)
Radio: KSL Newsradio, BYU Radio (Greg Wrubell, Riley Nelson, Mitchell Juergens)
Series: BYU leads 1-0
Toledo coach Jason Candle said the Cougars are the best team his side will have faced to date "in a lot of ways."
"From a personnel standpoint, their inside guys on the defensive front are very similar to Kentucky's guys," said Candle, whose team has faced Kentucky, Murray State and Colorado State. "The offensive line is very similar to Kentucky’s. The quarterback is probably the best we’ve faced, to this point in time. Maybe Kentucky had a little bit of an advantage in the skill players, but we played some tremendous players at Colorado State."
Fans of the weeknight college football phenomenon #MACtion — as well as anyone who watched BYU's 55-53 win over the Rockets in 2016 — probably know what to expect from this year’s Toledo squad.
The last time these two teams met, Jamaal Williams and Kareem Hunt put on a show. Both are now in the NFL, and the Cougars will rely on the running back tandem of Emmanuel Esukpa and Lopini Katoa, while the Rockets ride sophomore Bryant Koback.
"I heard about that last game," said Esukpa, a graduate transfer from Rice. "It was very exciting. But hopefully we can just dominate, instead of it being back-and-forth. It was definitely a very exciting game."
While saddened by the season-ending ACL injury of his close friend and fellow grad transfer Ty'Son Williams, Esukpa is excited at the prospect of being a lead back again.
"I was sad to see Ty'Son go down, and that was my first emotion. I'm in the same situation as him; that could’ve easily been me. So I felt sorry for him," he said. "But my energy is the same. I’m going to prepare the same, same energy in practice and in the weight room. I’ll just do what I need to do to get us the win."
The Cougars will probably need him.
The Rockets are averaging 36.7 points per game, allowing 24.3 points and piling up 269 yards of rushing offense. BYU, meanwhile, allows 215.5 rushing yards per game, the 14th-worst mark in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Koback ran for a career-high 228 yards and scored four touchdowns in Toledo’s wild 41-25 win at Colorado State a week ago, and comes into the ESPN streaming-exclusive matchup leading the nation’s No. 11 rush offense that averages 269 yards per game. That’s on par with Oklahoma State, Wisconsin and Ohio State, for reference.
Naturally, then, it's a matchup that has the Cougars' attention.
"We have to do a better job of playing run defense," BYU assistant head coach and linebackers coach Ed Lamb said. "It all starts with the run. We didn’t give ourselves a chance a week ago in run defense."
Even senior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is as much of a runner as a passer, averaging just 166.3 yards per game with four touchdowns and no interceptions on the season.
"When you throw it, two of the three things that result are probably bad,” Candle said. “If you can run it for 9.5 yards per play like we were able to Saturday, there’s no reason to ever throw it."
