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SAN DIEGO — The Holiday Bowl is a game of firsts.
It’s the first time either Northwestern or Utah has played in the Holiday Bowl; it’s also the first time the two programs have ever played each other in a bowl setting. That makes for an interesting and unpredictable matchup, which means we need some help to evaluate these two programs.
While stats can never fully predict the outcome of a game, they’re the closest thing we have to equalizing talent in separate, distinct conferences. So here’s a statistical preview of Monday’s matchup between two teams unfamiliar with each other.
Offense
Neither program is known for its prolific offense, so don’t expect an onslaught of points in the Holiday Bowl. Crazier things have happened, but points will likely come at a premium between Northwestern and Utah. It could have the makings for another 10-3 finish — similar to the Pac-12 Championship game; although, there’s likely to be more points scored than that on Monday.
And while points may vary, particularly if Utah starts Tyler Huntley or Jason Shelley at quarterback, the Utes have the supposed advantage in this matchup. Not only have they scored more points on average per game (28.7-23.7), they’ve also been more efficient in what they’ve done throughout the season.
Looking at the advanced metrics of S&P+, which is used to track a team’s overall efficiency, Utah is ranked 43rd in its offensive S&P+ while Northwestern is a measly 103rd. This is corroborated by ESPN’s efficiency metrics, which are valued in a percentage scale from 0-100, where a value of 50 is an average score for an average team. Here, Utah’s offense grades out to 60.1 percent while Northwestern comes in below average at 45.6 percent.
When Utah’s offense is clicking, it’s really hard to defend. In fact, Utah has scored 40 or more points in five games this season, including during a four-game stretch. Northwestern hasn’t scored that many points in any game this season and has only scored more than 30 points four times during its 8-5 record, one of which resulted in a loss.
Advantage: Utah
Defense
Defense wins championships and probably the Holiday Bowl, too. The bowl game features two defenses that love to control the ground game in the trenches and make teams beat them through the air. Utah comes into the game as the No. 4 rushing defense in the nation, holding teams to an average of 101.77 yards per game.
But Northwestern is no slouch here, either, and comes into the game ranked 30th in the nation, holding teams to an average of 132.62 yards per game. Utah has faced three opponents with better rushing defenses than Northwestern — BYU (27), Northern Illinois (14) and Washington (16). But for Northwestern, they’ve faced only two opponents better than themselves in rushing defense — Iowa (6) and Michigan (24); the Wildcats split these games in low-scoring affairs.
The difference in this matchup is in defending the passing game where Utah, again, holds an advantage. Utah comes into Monday’s game with the 52nd best passing defense, holding teams to 213.3 yards per game, and ranked 26th in team passing efficiency defense. Northwestern gives up an average of 258.1 yards per game to rank the Wildcats 106th in passing defense, and 79th in team passing efficiency defense.
Still, the defensive S&P+ has these two programs fairly equal, with Utah coming in at No. 22 and Northwestern at No. 32. ESPN’s efficiency metrics give Utah’s defense a 79.6 percent efficiency and Northwestern a 70.5 percent efficiency. Who doesn’t love a good defensive slugfest?
Advantage: Utah
Special Teams
This is an area of the matchup that isn’t even close. Utah’s special teams S&P+ rating comes in at No. 7 while Northwestern comes in at No. 122 — opposite spectrums of college football. That’s not to say Northwestern can’t be effective in special teams, but it’s hard to combat a Lou Groza Award winner and Ray Guy Award winner on the same side of the ball.
Northwestern has only made nine field goals on 15 attempts this season between three guys. Sophomore kicker Charlie Kuhbander leads the group with four made field goals. In terms of punting, Northwestern’s senior punter Jake Collins averages 40.71 yards per punt on 5.5 punts per game.
Utah’s Matt Gay has scored 115 points on his own with 24 made field goals and 43 points after touchdown. Add to that Mitch Wishnowsky’s average punt of 45.15 yards on an average of 4.2 punts per game and the special teams game belongs to the Utes.
Advantage: Utah
Las Vegas betting lines favor the Utes by a touchdown in this matchup, but anything is possible at this time of the year. Just looking at the statistical categories, Utah appears to be the favorite, but wins on paper are meaningless, which is why we watch the game.
Kickoff is slated for 5 p.m. MST Monday, with the game being broadcast on FS1 and ESPN 700.
Editor’s note: A previous version of this article erroneously said Utah and Northwestern had never played each other prior to the Holiday Bowl; however they have played each other twice before. The article now includes the correct information.
