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SALT LAKE CITY — The magic number is 30.
That’s the number — or score — Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham believes his team has to hit in order to win games in the Pac-12. And sure enough, all of Utah’s wins over Pac-12 opponents this season have come when the team scores more than 30 points. In fact, Utah is averaging 32.5 points scored in Pac-12 play this season and averaged 41 points in their four latest wins.
That point is further solidified when you consider that Utah has a 23-4 record in conference play when scoring 30 or more points in a game against Pac-12 teams. That point threshold, then, becomes a very important number for each game and an unwritten objective to obtaining success or a win.
Against the Utes this season, no team has scored more than 28 points in a game — in Pac-12 play or in their nonconference schedule. And only No. 10 Washington State and USC — after Utah had a couple of turnovers and gifted them some points — have reached that 28-point mark. In total, Utah’s Pac-12 opponents are averaging only 19.7 points per game this season against the Utes.
That’s a 12.8-point differential for the Utes — nearly a two-touchdown average lead over their opponents. Last season, Utah held a 0.2-point scoring margin over their Pac-12 opponents; in 2016 that margin was slightly higher at 3.6, and in 2015, the margin was 7.0 in Utah’s favor. Every season prior, Utah held a negative scoring margin against Pac-12 teams, with 2013 as the biggest at -9.3.
Utah’s elite defense this season is to credit for limiting opposing teams’ attacks. From the defensive line to the secondary, Utah has made it difficult to pick up any big gains, let alone put points on the board. The defense is allowing only 31.2 yards per drive, with an average starting field position at the 26.6-yard line in Pac-12 play. The defense is also only allowing 1.65 points per drive.
In contrast, Utah’s offense is averaging 34.5 yards per drive with an average starting field position 31.8-yard line in Pac-12 play. The offense is also scoring an average of 2.71 points per drive or 0.46 points per play.
Utah's average starting and ending field position
Utah opponents' average starting and ending field position
Utah doesn’t put up gaudy numbers on offense, despite convincing wins the last four weeks. They average 431.4 yards per game as the 46th best total offense team. Utah has just been efficient with the opportunities presented them. Offensive coordinator Troy Taylor has orchestrated an effective and consistent offense that allows quarterback Tyler Huntley to make good decisions and exploit whatever defense opposing teams bring at Utah.
Against a team like UCLA, where the run defense was subpar, Taylor didn’t need to rely upon Huntley to put up big numbers to still score more than 30 points. Instead, Utah relied on workhorse running back Zack Moss for a 211-yard and three touchdown rushing performance to dominate the Bruins.
In total, Utah’s rushing attack made up 70 percent of the play-calling against the Bruins, just slightly more than their season average of 63 percent. After the first three weeks of the season, where Taylor attempted to establish a more balanced offense between the pass and run, Utah has shifted primarily to a run-heavy offense and is averaging 67 percent run plays to 33 percent passing in their last five games.
And while that strategy has worked in Utah’s recent tear through the Pac-12, there’s reason to believe the offense may be forced to shift a little more to passing the ball to defeat its remaining three opponents of Pac-12 play.
Arizona State, Oregon and Colorado are slightly better at stopping the run than Utah’s previous four opponents, but each is still ranked in the sub-40 category nationally. The run game may take a little more time to develop, but the opportunities will still be there for the Utes.
However, if teams are able to somewhat stop the run, Taylor can rely on Huntley to exploit the passing game, which is an area of weakness for all three remaining teams. Colorado ranks the highest of the bunch nationally at 63rd in passing defense and 39th in terms of pass defense efficiency. Arizona State (73rd) and Oregon (88th) offer a mediocre passing defense.
Huntley’s numbers throughout the season give Utah a threat to close out the conference season strong. The junior quarterback is completing 65.3 percent of his passes and is finding a consistent base of receivers to give him more than enough room to work with as defenses adjust. Most importantly, 89.9 percent of his passes are on target and in a position to give his receivers success.
As currently constructed, Utah’s offense is tough for any defense to beat. That’s not to say that opposing teams can’t find weakness in their game; it’s just that Taylor has built up an offense with a multitude of options available for his playmakers to succeed and exploit whatever the defense gives Utah in order to break the 30-point barrier en route to a victory.
No. 16 Utah will travel this weekend to take on Arizona State in another coveted South Division matchup. The Utes sit atop the South standings, and a win over the Sun Devils would all but confirm Utah’s division title. Kickoff is slated for 2 p.m. on the Pac-12 Networks and ESPN 700.
