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SALT LAKE CITY — The sky is falling.
At least that’s the public’s view of the University of Utah football program that is seemingly in shambles.
While there are valid reasons for fans, players and coaches to be frustrated by the early-season conference game results, the season’s outcome hasn’t quite doomed the future of the program … yet. But there are some concerning trends that don’t favor Utah moving forward in a daunting conference schedule ahead.
Coming into the season, Utah was viewed as a viable contender for the South division after returning several starters and a supposedly improved offense led by quarterback Tyler Huntley and running back Zack Moss. Adding to that preseason hype was a stellar defense that was expected to be one of Utah’s best all time.
Utah may not have been picked to win the South in the preseason media poll, but many saw a scenario where Utah finally claimed the coveted South division title and made its first appearance in the Pac-12 Championship game (and just to note, that scenario is still very much in play for Utah, despite a 2-2, 0-2 record with losses to both Washington schools).
It’s not that Utah is necessarily outmatched or lacks the talent and depth necessary to compete on the gridiron this season, or that the coaching staff is inexperienced and lacks the know-how, it’s that there’s no consistency in two losses where Utah seemingly could have and should have won, or at least given themselves a fighting chance.
Most recently, Utah limited Washington State to only 21 points for much of Saturday’s road game and held a 4-point lead going into the fourth quarter. But a decision to go away from what worked in the first half — a strong, diverse run game — and blown coverage on defense late in the game to allow an 89-yard touchdown pass doomed Utah’s momentum.
Several tries later, where Utah had favorable field position, Utah played undisciplined and allowed multiple penalties to negate viable first-down opportunities and a punt return touchdown to give the Cougars the homecoming win.
For Utah, unfortunately, it's a familiar situation and an area where the program has been most consistent: keep the game close, but find a way to lose it at the end. A penalty-laden drive against Washington State, a stalled offense against Washington, an inability to score inside the 5-yard line on multiple attempts against Colorado in 2017, and a missed opportunity to a wide-open Darren Carrington in the end zone against USC in 2017 are just a few of the many painful reminders of could-be wins for the Utes.
In total, Utah has a 3-8 record (27.3 percent) in conference play in the last two seasons. Tack on a better 2016 season, where Utah finished with a 5-4 conference record, and Utah slightly improves to 8-12 (40.0 percent).
But in games decided by one possession, Utah holds a poor 1-5 record (16.7 percent) since 2017 and a 4-9 record (30.8 percent) since 2016. In total, Utah holds a 15-19 record (44.1 percent) in conference play in one-possession games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011.
Utah is rarely blown out in a conference game, with most of their games (53.8 percent) coming down to one possession. But Utah has never been a strong closing team, so it’s difficult to project anything different moving forward for the Utes should trends hold up. In close games, Utah would be better off flipping a coin rather than competing on the field for the win.
The situation doesn’t get any better, though, in Utah’s chances of winning by more than one score. In fact, Utah is less likely to win (43.3 percent) in games where they outscore their opponent nine or more points. Utah has only won 13 out of 65 conference games since 2011 when outscoring their opponent by nine points or more. That’s less than two wins (1.86) per season.
The reality is Utah will be forced into several one-possession games this season moving forward unless they become a high-powered offense. And since there are no indications of that happening anytime soon, Utah has to find a way to be more disciplined late in games and find a way to hold onto a late lead or conjure up a late game-winning charge, similar to Utah’s 2016 win over USC when Troy Williams connected with Tim Patrick for a game-winning touchdown pass in the front corner of the end zone.
