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SALT LAKE CITY — The Utah Jazz have five games remaining going into tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers. While their final playoff standing is far from certain, the odds of making the playoffs lean heavily in their favor.
According to ESPN, the Jazz have a 96.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Statistician Nate Silver’s website 538 says the Jazz have a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Barring an extremely unlikely change of fate, the Jazz will play at least four games beyond their regularly scheduled 82 and should be considered a major threat to advance past the first round, should they avoid either the Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets.
The Jazz have already surpassed the Vegas oddsmakers' prediction for the final record set in September, which would have seen the Jazz finish with 40 wins. The Jazz are 11 games above .500, 44-33, with five games remaining during the regular season.
Truthfully, beating the odds by just one game, and finishing with a record of .500 or better would have been a monumental achievement and would have set Jazz fans with one of the more memorable seasons of the last decade. But the story of how the Jazz got to this point where they are poised to make the playoffs is nearly Shakespearean.
The drama started on the Fourth of July when Gordon Hayward, after a year-long campaign from Jazz fans to retain his services, left the Jazz for the Boston Celtics. After a terrific 2016-17 season, which saw the Jazz win 51 games and a first-round series victory over the Los Angeles Clippers, Hayward dashed the hopes of fans who thought the team was poised for a long and fruitful future in one fell swoop.
The Jazz got their first taste of post-Hayward success in the Utah Jazz Summer League when new rookie Donovan Mitchell averaged 15.3 points per game. Dante Exum, entering a make-or-break season, averaged 20 points per game. The two, alongside newly acquired guard Ricky Rubio, appeared to be the backcourt of the future in Utah.
Then, in the preseason, Exum suffered a dislocated shoulder, and the Jazz future backcourt was split apart before playing a meaningful game. Worse yet, Mitchell’s NBA readiness appeared to have abandoned him through the league’s first two weeks. Through seven games of his young career, Mitchell averaged nine points, two rebounds and one assist, shooting 33 percent from the floor and 28 percent from the 3-point line.
Seemingly miraculously, Mitchell turned his season around. Over the next six games, the rookie would score double digits in five of the next six outings, including three games with 20 points or more.
Then, injuries returned. All-NBA center Rudy Gobert sprained his MCL in a game against the Miami Heat and was ruled out for four weeks. Despite returning a week earlier than expected, and a continued high level of play from Mitchell, Gobert was injured again against the Boston Celtics.
By the time Gobert returned, the Jazz were 18-26 and just a few games away from the worst record in the Western Conference. What was once a promising season had been derailed by injuries, and the Jazz appeared destined for a roster overhaul.
But the tragedy rapidly reversed course. Since Gobert made his return, the Jazz have won 26 of their last 33 games and have climbed from the 10th seed in the West to the 6th seed heading into Tuesday’s games. During the stretch, the Jazz had both an 11-game and nine-game winning streak, including wins over defending champions Golden State, and road wins over playoff-bound teams like Portland, San Antonio, New Orleans, Indiana and Minnesota.
Along the way, Mitchell’s highlight-riddled play has made him one of the front-runners for the Rookie of the Year Award, while Gobert has entered his name into the Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Now, with just five games to play, the Jazz are entering the postseason as one of the league’s hottest young teams, and fans have a reason for optimism beyond this season. With Gobert locked up to a long-term contract, and Mitchell under team control for years to come, the Jazz won’t face another Hayward-like situation for several more seasons.
This season has seen more than its share of ups and downs, but the Jazz appear to be poised to emerge from the turmoil better than when they entered the season. With a competitive showing in the playoffs, this can be the best Jazz season of the past decade, with better basketball to come.
