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Welcome to KSL’s weekly Utah Jazz Mailbag. Beat writer Andy Larsen and KSL contributor Ben Anderson will discuss and debate your questions surrounding the Jazz, to try to find a common ground answer.
Ben Anderson: Hey Andy!
It seems since the departure of Deron Williams, the Jazz can’t find a consistent line-up for their point guard rotation. Obviously, George Hill is the starter for the Jazz, and rightfully so, but who is going to get minutes behind him? Early in the season, Shelvin Mack and Dante Exum jostled over the minutes, with Mack getting the lion’s share. You wrote an excellent article here, detailing why Mack had won the job.
Then, starting in February, it looked like Quin Snyder had handed the job back to Exum. Since Feb. 1, Exum has averaged 16 minutes per game, contributing just over six points, two rebounds and an assist-and-a-half on decent shooting percentages.
However, on Wednesday night in Sacramento, Exum got the start in place of the injured Hill and turned in a pretty rough outing. Exum went 0-6 from the field, for 0 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 turnovers. He also had 4 fouls in just 22 minutes and had the worst plus/minus (+1) on the team.
Meanwhile, I thought Mack was stellar. He had 14 points on 5-8 shooting, 4 rebounds and an assist, with the team’s second highest plus/minus (+31).
I know it was just one game, but Snyder seemed quick with the hook for Exum. Am I foolish to think Mack might retake the reserve point guard minutes from Exum over the season’s final seven games?
Andy Larsen: I don’t think you’re crazy at all.
But I do think you’re forgetting someone else: Raul Neto, the 10th best 3-point shooter in Jazz history (no really, that stat is true!), the guy who actually took the backup point guard spot from Exum at the beginning of last week. Before sitting out of Wednesday night’s win in Sacramento, Neto had played the last three games as the primary backup point guard, playing 47 minutes overall. And during that time, the really iffy Jazz bench was a +27 overall, very nicely done.
In other words, I think there might be two replacement level point guards Snyder trusts over Exum right now. And, well, that’s not a great sign for Exum, who was absolutely the most disappointed man in the Jazz’s locker room, despite the 30-point win.
So who do you go with? Snyder says he’s valuing defense over everything else at backup point guard. He referenced Mack’s five deflections in his postgame press conference. But Neto is absolutely the better player at navigating screens and staying in front. He’s also pretty small and might require help in some situations. There’s some evidence that Exum has struggled to defend quicker point guards, but does really well against backup shooting guards.
Maybe that’s the way to go, play whoever the matchup dictates? Backup-point-guard-by-committee? If the opponent has size, play Exum. If they have speed, play Neto. If you need offense, play Mack. Does that work?
BA: Statistically speaking, it makes perfect sense.
In all actuality, in the postseason when every possession matters, I’m not sure Snyder will be willing to treat his rotation so specifically while sacrificing team continuity over the next two weeks. In that sense, the Jazz have seven games to figure out this rotation, and even less considering the Jazz have already announced that both Hill and Neto will be sidelined during the Washington Wizards game.
Essentially, Snyder may have to make a gut decision on his backup point guard and start the postseason with one player in mind, only making a change if it becomes blatantly obvious that backup is going to cost the Jazz the game. Unfortunately, in a 4-5 match-up like the Jazz are likely to see come playoff time, a gap in talent at backup point guard might be the difference between two otherwise similarly talented teams.
Let’s assume Snyder opts to play either Neto or Mack over Exum in the first round. Does that say anything about the Jazz summer plans with any of these three? Exum and Neto are under contract, while Mack is an unrestricted free agent. If Mack gets the job and plays well, he might get a better offer than the Jazz are willing to pay to play elsewhere. Neto and Exum will enter their third seasons on the roster, and at some point the Jazz likely have to commit to one or the other. Will the next seven games, plus the postseason, reveal anything on what the Jazz point guard rotation looks like beyond this season?
AL: If you’re worried about continuity, maybe you choose the point guard now that makes the most sense for your likely playoff series. If that’s the Clippers, you’re looking for someone who can stop Raymond Felton or Austin Rivers. Neto and Exum have actually been pretty good off the bench in that role against the Clippers this year, while Mack has struggled.
Ultimately, you and I both know that, given the win-now pressure of a playoff series, Snyder is going to play the player he’s most comfortable with. Exum is not that guy. Mistakes against the Kings are fine — you can come back and win by 30 even if your backup point guard costs you 10 percent win expectancy. In the playoffs, that won’t fly. And Snyder hasn’t exactly been showing incredible patience with Exum’s minutes in the regular season. I doubt he’s going to get much of an opportunity in the playoffs unless the first choice backup is a nightmare.
If, indeed, Exum doesn’t play much in the playoffs, then, yes, that informs your decision making. Believe it or not, Exum is eligible for an extension this summer, which they aren’t going to give if he’s getting zero playing time. Exum’s representation isn’t going to want to stay in a place where their guy isn’t getting playing time, either.
I don’t think Mack is going to stay around, mostly because I think you’re right: some other team will offer him a contract, and the Jazz are going to want to try to get someone else better for the backup point guard spot or younger for the third point guard spot. And Neto will be non-guaranteed next season, too. I think it’s probably likely that he’ll stay; after all, he stuck around all year this year as the fourth point guard for most of the year. But if there’s a roster spot crunch, he could be the guy to go.
The point guard rotation could be essentially identical next year, or it could be different from top to bottom. All four Jazz PGs have a lot riding on the next few weeks.
If you’d like to send a question into the next KSL Jazz mailbag, comment below with your question or send an email to me at alarsen@ksl.com. Ben Anderson is a contributor at KSL.com. Follow him on Twitter @BenKFAN. Follow Andy Larsen on Twitter @andyblarsen, and read his daily coverage of the Utah Jazz at KSL.com.
