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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281543
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 28 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
NO DEFINITIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 05N102W TO 07N110W TO 05N131W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N137W TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN S OF THE ITCZ 120 NM BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.
ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 480-600 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 15N114W TO 08N125W...WHERE A
HEALTHY AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS PRESENT ON THE NW SIDE OF A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NW HELPING TO PUMP UP AND FEED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE ITCZ AREA.
...DISCUSSION...
AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH IS NEAR 32N131W EXTENDING A
RIDGE AXIS SE TO 18N108W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT
OFF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE
FORCE NW-N WINDS AND 8-10 FT SEAS WITH COMPONENTS OF SW AND NW
SWELL. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY 24
HOURS. THE MIXED SW AND NW SWELL WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 8-
9 FT N OF 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W BY 48 HOURS...THEN WILL
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ TO THE S
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM ROUGHLY 07N TO
10N W OF 120W. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A SURROUNDING AREA OF
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MERGING SW AND NW SWELL COVERS THE
AREA FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 120W WITH COMBINED SEAS AT 8-10 FT.
THIS SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS.
A SMALL AREA OF MIXED SWELL...IN MERGING CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE AND
SW SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...AT 8-9 FT COVERS THE WATERS
SW-W OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
TO 7-8 FT WHILE CONTRACTING TO THE AREA S OF A LINE FROM
03.4S99W TO 01S101W TO 01S120W BY 48 HOURS.
BY 48 HOURS...AN IMPRESSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TOWARD THE NW CORNER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT INCREASING TO
20-25 KT BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8-9 FT NEAR 30N140W.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE TRANQUIL
HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE BY EARLY TUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN REGION WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SETS UP OVER NW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
INVERTED TROUGHING WILL BECOME PRONOUNCED JUST W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RIDGING W OF THERE. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS TO COMMENCE AROUND 12 UTC TUE.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KT BY LATE TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON SPILLING SOUTHWARD TO 26N WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT
LEAST 8-10 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN WEAKEN LATE TUE
INTO EARLY WED ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT N
OF 27N AND FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 5-8 FT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH AT
LEAST WED AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W.
$$
LEWITSKY
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Apr 28 2014 11:43AM EDT
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