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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW


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000

AXNT20 KNHC 170539

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ

BEGINNING AT THE COAST NEAR 10N14W INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG

3N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED

MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR

BETWEEN 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS TO OVER THE GULF

SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 17/0300 UTC ENTERS THE

GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO 23N85W WHERE

IT BEGINS TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR

21N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT

ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND. FRONT WILL CONTINUE

TO DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE LOW MAY

DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF FRI PUSHING

A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE LOW MOVES

EASTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING

FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY TRADE

WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE

LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA ALONG 16N70W TO 17N80W TO

INLAND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER

OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W ATLC

SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES

ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN

SLIGHTLY SAT AND SUN AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SW

ATLC WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND EXTREME SW

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS

HAITI INTO THE W ATLC AND WILL SHIFT E THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW

LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVING THE

ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT

THROUGH SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS

SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION THEN BECOMES STATIONARY

BEFORE ENTERING THE W ATLC AT 17/0300 UTC NEAR 32N71W AND

EXTENDS ALONG 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF

FLORIDA NEAR 25B80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF THE FRONT. A

SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL

ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH ABOUT 800 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN

UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC TO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC

SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W

AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N26W TO 22N38W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT

WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SE AS A COLD FRONT SAT. SURFACE LOW

MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY

MOVE E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUN NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE

VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

PAW

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Thu Apr 17 2014 1:39AM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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