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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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000

AXNT20 KNHC 140554

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA

COASTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY

WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF

THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO

HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W SW

TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE

AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 03S24W TO 02S33W TO THE COAST OF N

BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-

02N BETWEEN 13W-22W AND FROM 07S-03N BETWEEN 25W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC

WATERS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WELL AS

INTO THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING TO THE BASIN

WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO

PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. ALOFT...A RIDGE PROVIDES WITH

WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE

FROM THE E PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NW GULF. MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN

INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N OF 26N W OF

90W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF

IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N W OF 91W. E-SE WIND

FLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS ADVECTING LINGERING MOISTURE

ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY

AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT

COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON INTO

EARLY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BEHIND THE

FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN

GULF STARTING MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

E-NE WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND

CENTRAL ATLC WATERS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT PASSING

SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO

HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH TUE

EVENING. ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS

WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS

FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS

THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W S

OF 17N WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE

EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY

THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.

HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO

HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE

ISLAND THROUGH TUE EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC

PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THERE IS A WEAKNESS

IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N57W TO

24N60W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL

BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED

SHOWERS MAINLY NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 53W-

60W. NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN

NEARBY THE LOCATION OF A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N

BETWEEN 72W-75W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SURFACE RIDGING

WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEN ON

TUE NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Apr 14 2014 1:54AM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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