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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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000

AXNT20 KNHC 130550

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO

04N17W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS

EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR

03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 01S-04N

BETWEEN 16W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS

EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AS WELL INTO THE GULF

WATERS. RIDGING IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH E-SE WIND FLOW

RANGING FROM 10-15 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON

MORNING. ALOFT...WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE

BASIN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC

OCEAN TO THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS N

OF 23N W OF 91W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW

CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N OF

27N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR

SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER

THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH

E PACIFIC IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND

PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. HIGH MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT

AT THE LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT.

WITH NO LIFTING MECHANISMS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW

BASIN MAY JUST ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN

S OF 12N BETWEEN 74W-80W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING

...THE REMAINDER BASIN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER.

TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-79W WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25

KT. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH

THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN

WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED

SHOWERS HAPPENING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THIS SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ALOFT BEING ADVECTED

FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS AS WELL AS BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS

EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC

PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A WEAKNESS IN THE

RIDGE SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM

30N49W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 26N59W TO 26N71W TO 22N78W. MIDDLE

LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS NEARBY THE FRONT

FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 56W-73W. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE

TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N24W

WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SW TO 20N30W. SCATTERED

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 27N BETWEEN 18W-

24W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

NR

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sun Apr 13 2014 1:50AM EDT

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The Associated Press

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