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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130234
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 13 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 06N91W WHERE LOW
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO
04.5N101W TO 06N116W TO BEYOND 02N132W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 99W
AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS
NOTED WITHIN 220 NM N AND 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 116W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS STARTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS...AND HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
FRESHEN TRADES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR
15N AND W OF 125W. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TO MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH AT
LEAST MON EVENING.
SEAS TO 9 FT CONTINUE S OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 126W AND S OF
01N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. THESE SEAS CONSIST OF RESIDUAL SWELL
FROM THE PREVIOUS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP
WIND EVENTS AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD SW AND SE SWELL. SEAS OVER
THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY
MON AFTERNOON SEAS TO 8 FT WILL BE FOUND MAINLY FROM 00N TO
03.4S BETWEEN 97W AND 120W.
LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PULSE TO
25 KT OVERNIGHT WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY SUN
AFTERNOON. STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTING THE GAP WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WIND FLOW
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD...WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MON
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GAP WIND EVENT MAY REACH GALE FORCE TUE
NIGHT.
$$
AL
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sat Apr 12 2014 10:35PM EDT
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