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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080238
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 08 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT LATE SEASON GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL STORM
FORCE. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BEGIN
TO BLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE AFTERNOON AND WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE TO 30-40 KT BY WED AT 0000 UTC. COMPUTER MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING WINDS UP TO 45-50
KT BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 22-23
FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS. A STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THIS GAP WIND EVENT IS FORECAST
TO DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE BY WED AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO THU
MORNING. THEN...EXPECT WINDS TO FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW GALE
FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON. THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A
STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N95W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 05N95W TO 02N110W TO 03N125W TO 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR
02N132W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 7N137W TO NEAR 29N129W. A 90-130 KT JETSTREAM IS
RIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE FROM
28N140W TO ABOUT 27N128W WHERE WINDS DIMINISH TO 70 KT TO NEAR
15N120W. E OF THE RIDGE...THERE IS A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N118W TO 10N115W...THEN THE TROUGH
CONTINUES SE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 110W. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 130W...
INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. FURTHER
E...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 95W WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 89W. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA A PARTS
OF GUATEMALA.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR
33N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR
20N110W. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS FROM 08N TO 14N W OF 130W. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF
5-7 FT.
CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS JUST W OF AREA AND CROSSES NEAR
30N142W. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH TO THE FAR NW CORNER OF
THE AREA ON TUE. A WEAK LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY LATE TUE WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER NEAR 29N140W TO 28N138 TO 24N140W BY
WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT. EXPECT
SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE LOW CENTER AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY WED.
AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...BUILDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA BY WED MORNING...EXPECT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH
THE GAP REGIONS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. MARINE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
BY THU MORNING.
$$
GR
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Apr 7 2014 10:38PM EDT
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