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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050237
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 05 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N77W TO 06N86W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N86W TO
06N95W 03N107W...THEN DISCONTINUOUS FROM 02N131W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN
84W AND 88W...AND WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 32N116W TO BEYOND 26N140W. A STRONG SW TO W FLOW
IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND DOMINATES THE AREA N OF
19N...INCLUDING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
MEXICO. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM WITH CORE WINDS OF 110-130 KT. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF
TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM AS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SE OF THE TROUGH...THERE IS AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N98W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ANOTHER RIDGE
STRETCHING E OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR NICARAGUA/
COSTA RICA BORDER. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE EPAC THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA WITH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 07N85W WHERE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION IS
SEEN.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM FROM 30N120W TO 25N130W. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
BEHIND THE TROUGH FRONT...BUT A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL PROPAGATE SE
ACROSS THE N WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL PULSES OF
NW SWELL REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT.
A PAIR OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
JUST W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THESE
WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION. THIS NW FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
OF BAJA SAT INTO SUN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.
EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT N OF
26N E OF 122W BY LATE SAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF
4-5 FT...THEN WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT BY MON
EVENING.
A 1028 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N138W
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS WATERS N OF 20N. SEAS WILL REMAIN JUST AT
OR BELOW 8 FT IN LINGERING NW SWELL. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY FROM 09N TO 21N W OF 128W
WITH SEAS TO 11 FT IN A MIX OF LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL AND
SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL DUE TO TRADE WINDS. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF
THE TRADES WILL INCREASE FARTHER E AS HIGH PRES MOVES EASTWARD
TO NEAR 32N135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
THE BIG ISSUE COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY SHOWING AT LEAST A GALE BY TUE NIGHT...WITH THE GFS
AS USUAL THE STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING STRONG GALE TO MINIMAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.
$$
GR
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Apr 4 2014 10:37PM EDT
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