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211
AXPZ20 KNHC 100916
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 10 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N95W
TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W.NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 140W N OF 20N. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 20N140W. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST NEAR THE TROUGH
AXIS. 1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR
33N144W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
PERSIST NW OF THE FRONT. THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS DAMPENING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO
STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL
SHIFT NE WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AND
DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT SEAS
REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE TODAY.
THE SWELL WILL LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR 12N115W
UNDER A DEFORMATION AREA ALOFT AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N125W.
MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN
DISSIPATES AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
ADJACENT COAST OF SINALOA.
GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A FRONTAL CURRENTLY IN THE W GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH TUE. FRESH GAP FLOW IS LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AS WELL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Mar 10 2014 5:16AM EDT
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