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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

By The Associated Press | Posted - Mar. 10, 2014 at 3:20 a.m.



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211

AXPZ20 KNHC 100916

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC MON MAR 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N95W

TO 08N125W TO BEYOND 05N140W.NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH 140W N OF 20N. AN

ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N132W TO 20N140W. A

FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER WEST NEAR THE TROUGH

AXIS. 1029 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NW OF THE FRONT NEAR

33N144W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS

PERSIST NW OF THE FRONT. THE SUPPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT

WAVE TROUGH IS DAMPENING OUT AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN

STREAM TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO

STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES WILL

SHIFT NE WITH THE MEAN RIDGE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING

TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AND

DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY. MEANWHILE NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT

CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 8 FT SEAS

REACHING FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST TO 06N140W BY LATE TODAY.

THE SWELL WILL LARGELY DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TUE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR 12N115W

UNDER A DEFORMATION AREA ALOFT AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH

EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N125W.

MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH

THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE

NOTED N OF THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N. THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES

ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUE

AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE LIKELY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF

OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GREAT BASIN

DISSIPATES AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CALIFORNIA. A SHARP

UPPER TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO HAS BEEN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE

ADJACENT COAST OF SINALOA.

GAP WINDS...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS

OVER EASTERN MEXICO BEHIND A FRONTAL CURRENTLY IN THE W GULF OF

MEXICO. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE

THROUGH TUE. FRESH GAP FLOW IS LIKELY THROUGH THE GULF OF

PAPAGAYO AS WELL THIS MORNING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE.

$$

CHRISTENSEN

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Mon Mar 10 2014 5:16AM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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