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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW


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245

AXPZ20 KNHC 070930

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC FRI MAR 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH

THE AREA YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING A BRIEF PULSE OF WINDS TO GALE

FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL

DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS

BY FRI EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-11 FT

DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8

FT BY FRI EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 03N90W TO

01N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N102W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND

04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF

ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR

10N105W TO 08N115W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL

CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG

THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THE UPPER FORCING IS ALSO

INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN

95W AND 105W.

FARTHER NORTH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING

INTO SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW AT

THE SURFACE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. A

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A 1024 MB HIGH PRES

CENTERED NEAR 32N128W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG

NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA

PENINSULA N OF 26N. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SAT AS

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC TOWARD

CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING THE FRESH NW FLOW TO DIMINISH INTO SAT OFF

THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL

WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST

OF BAJA AS FAR SOUTH AS CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE

OVERALL AREA OF SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK

HOWEVER...AND IT WILL BE CONTAINED TO THE WATERS FROM 22N TO 30N

BETWEEN 112W AND 122W BY LATE SAT...AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT

ALTOGETHER BY LATE SUN.

HIGH PRES BUILDING BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG

NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA

FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES TRADE WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT

SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE TRADE WIND

FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE

AREA WEAKENS.

FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL

APPROACH 30N140W FROM THE WEST BY LATE SAT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE

UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER

DYNAMICS LIFT NE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH

SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE

FRONT STARTING SATURDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT

SWELL MOVING SE AND REACHING FROM 30N125W TO 12N140W BY LATE

SUN.

MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN

THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH MOST OF

SUNDAY...WITH FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH PAPAGAYO SUN NIGHT INTO MON

MORNING.

$$

CHRISTENSEN

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Mar 7 2014 4:30AM EST

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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