Estimated read time: 3-4 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
245
AXPZ20 KNHC 070930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 07 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA YESTERDAY IS ALLOWING A BRIEF PULSE OF WINDS TO GALE
FORCE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE...THEN TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY FRI EVENING. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 10-11 FT
DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8
FT BY FRI EVENING.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N77W TO 03N90W TO
01N102W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N102W TO 05N120W TO BEYOND
04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 120W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
10N105W TO 08N115W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. THE UPPER FORCING IS ALSO
INDUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W.
FARTHER NORTH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING
INTO SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW AT
THE SURFACE MOVING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA. A
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND A 1024 MB HIGH PRES
CENTERED NEAR 32N128W IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
NW WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA N OF 26N. THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS TONIGHT AND SAT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC TOWARD
CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING THE FRESH NW FLOW TO DIMINISH INTO SAT OFF
THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LEADING EDGE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST
OF BAJA AS FAR SOUTH AS CABO SAN LAZARO THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE
OVERALL AREA OF SWELL 8 FT OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO SHRINK
HOWEVER...AND IT WILL BE CONTAINED TO THE WATERS FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 112W AND 122W BY LATE SAT...AND SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT
ALTOGETHER BY LATE SUN.
HIGH PRES BUILDING BRIEFLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES TRADE WIND FLOW OF AT LEAST 20 KT
SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE
AREA WEAKENS.
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH 30N140W FROM THE WEST BY LATE SAT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS LIFT NE ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNDAY. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT STARTING SATURDAY...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 8 FT
SWELL MOVING SE AND REACHING FROM 30N125W TO 12N140W BY LATE
SUN.
MEANWHILE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN
THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH MOST OF
SUNDAY...WITH FRESH GAP FLOW THROUGH PAPAGAYO SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Fri Mar 7 2014 4:30AM EST
Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
