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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

By The Associated Press | Posted - Mar. 6, 2014 at 5:00 a.m.



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821

AXNT20 KNHC 061153

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

705 AM EST THU MAR 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 30N22W...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE METAREA II HIGH

SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE

WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE IRVING AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY...ROUGHLY NEAR 30N22W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO

5N20W 3N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N27W TO 2N32W...CROSSING

THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...AND ALONG THE EQUATOR STILL TO 38W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N

TO 5N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG

ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 36W. WIDELY

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN

44W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF

3N TO THE EAST OF 6W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF

50W...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF

MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH LOUISIANA...THE

NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND INTERIOR MEXICO

TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 104W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH

IS THE FEATURE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND

WEST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.

A COLD FRONT REACHES 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WARM FRONT

CONTINUES FROM 32N60W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1014 MB LOW

PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N68W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM

THE 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT

CONTINUES FROM 31N73W...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 28N...INTO

THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM

27N87W TO 28N91W AND TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS

NEAR 26N92W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1009 MB LOW

PRESSURE CENTER TO 21N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA

EAST COAST FROM 27N80W...ALONG THE EDGE OF THE NORTHERN

BAHAMAS...TO 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF

MEXICO...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W.

OTHER RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE

EAST OF 90W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE

FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF

THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N66W 26N75W 23N81W. CONVECTIVE

PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO

OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE

ELSEWHERE TO NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND

NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE

COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N

TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/

ICAO STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR STATION KATP. ICAO STATION KATP HAS

BEEN REPORTING EITHER SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OR A LOW CLOUD

CEILING...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...DURING THE LAST TEN

OBSERVATIONS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF

TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND

COASTAL AREAS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ONE EXCEPTION IS CLEARING SKIES IN THE MIDDLE

TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE IN

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE

WEST OF PERRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE FROM PERRY TO

FORT MYERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.

VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG ARE FOUND IN PUNTA

GORDA AND PARTS OF FORT MYERS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND

THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS

ABOUT THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N83W TO 28N90W THEN WARM FRONT

TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N92W...THEN COLD

FRONT TO 21N95W. EXPECT WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS

LOWER THAN 8 FEET BETWEEN 60 NM AND 120 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN

QUADRANT OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. EXPECT ALSO

NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET

ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS

NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND

POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE

TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 11N63W 13N73W 13N83W...

TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N

TO THE WEST OF 76W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE

RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM

ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 22N79W IN CUBA...TO 17N81W IN

THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N82W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN

THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE

SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N

TO THE WEST OF 76W...ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS

OF LOW CLOUDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...

AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE

DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA

HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT

ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET

WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. A SECOND AREA OF

CONCERN CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA

HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 84W AND

87W.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VENEZUELA COAST THAT IS

NEAR 11N69W...BEYOND HISPANIOLA...THEN CURVING THROUGH 25N66W IN

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES

HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. MIDDLE LEVEL

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED

WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 250 NM TO

THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...AND IN

SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-

SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE MOVES

FROM VENEZUELA EASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 260 NM TO

THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500

MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS

HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER

THAT STARTS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE

NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN ENDS NEAR A POSITION THAT IS

ABOUT 630 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL

FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL

CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT

WILL START IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT

660 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE ANTICYCLONIC

CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP IN 48 HOURS AT A POSITION THAT IS

ABOUT 850 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N43W TO 29N47W AND 26N51W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED

TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF

THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W 26N52W 23N57W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20W FROM 20N

BEYOND 32N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE

NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT

IS NEAR 37N24W...THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N43W. A SECOND RIDGE

EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR

28N53W...TO 26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR

MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST

WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF

30N TO THE WEST OF 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND

SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Thu Mar 6 2014 6:53AM EST

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