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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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257

AXNT20 KNHC 051155

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

705 AM EST WED MAR 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF

MOROCCO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST GRAND LARGE

FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE IN THE

AGADIR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO

9N16W AND 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 5N18W...TO THE

EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 2S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 13W AND

30W. SCATTERED STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 1N TO 2N WITHIN 30 NM ON

EITHER SIDE OF 48W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 2N TO THE

EAST OF 3W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF

50W...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH

LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN

MEXICO ALONG 100W. THIS FEATURE IS FOLLOWED BY A SECOND MIDDLE

LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS MOVING

THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR

32N65W...JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 30N72W...TO FLORIDA

NEAR 27N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. THE FRONT

BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 26N87W TO 26N92W...TO A 1013 MB LOW

PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM

THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SCATTERED

MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 87W AND

91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE

RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE

28N81W 24N90W 19N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC

OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE

RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE

THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 27N60W 26N70W 25N80W. A STATIONARY

FRONT IS INLAND IN MEXICO ALONG 19N97W 26N100W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AS A RIDGE...HAS BUILT TO THE WEST AND

NORTHWEST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG THE

COASTS/COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO...TO 20N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N

TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT ALL THE PLATFORM SITES/

ICAO STATIONS. LOW CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING MORE AND MORE WITH TIME

AT THE ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KIPN.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF

TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS

AND COASTAL AREAS OF LOUISIANA. DRIZZLE WAS REPORTED IN THE

CORPUS CHRISTI AREA. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE GREATER

HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW

CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA.

COMPARATIVELY LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN

LOUISIANA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE

FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER

THE FLORIDA COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PUNTA GORDA. THE

VISIBILITIES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE GREATER TAMPA

METROPOLITAN AREA RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG. THE

VISIBILITY IN PUNTA GORDA IS 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. A MIDDLE

LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST THAT IS

NEAR 10N76W...ACROSS JAMAICA AND BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...

AND BEYOND THE BAHAMAS.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND

POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE

TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF

73W...TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W...AND ELSEWHERE TO

THE WEST OF 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN

THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVES FROM THE

EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...INTO THE

CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHEAST OF HONDURAS AND TO THE EAST OF

NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...

AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE

DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS

TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE

LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES HISPANIOLA... ASSOCIATED

WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW

LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-

WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA

RIDGE...FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND

FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...

WITH THE SAME RIDGE...JUST SHIFTED SLIGHTLY IN ITS ORIENTATION.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY AND

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT STARTS TO THE EAST OF

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THAT ENDS NEAR 21N60W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN

ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL START IN THE ATLANTIC

OCEAN AT A DISTANCE OF 250 NM TO 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE

NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE

TO A LOCATION THAT IS ABOUT 600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH

32N45W TO 24N50W. A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

CONTINUES TO 13N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W 28N51W

24N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN

44W AND 53W...AND FROM 17N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT

IS NEAR 27N59W TO 26N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS

ISLAND...TO 24N82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS ANTICYCLONIC

WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N49W 28N51W 24N52W SURFACE

TROUGH.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE

ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH

OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 34N6W IN MOROCCO...TO A 1029 MB HIGH

PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 36N24W...CONTINUING THROUGH 32N33W

AND 31N38W...TO 27N43W...AND TO 20N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Mar 5 2014 6:55AM EST

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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