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666
AXPZ20 KNHC 050925
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 5 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N105W TO 04N111W.
ITCZ FROM 04N111W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF
AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 93W.
...DISCUSSION...
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N127W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.
TWO DECAYING SETS OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 7 FT OR GREATER COVERING NEARLY ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. THIS REGION OF SWELL WILL CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 8 FT
BY WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS APPROACHING FAR NW
WATERS...WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS TO 12-13 FT...BUILDING TO 15-
17 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL ALSO SPREAD SE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW.
GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 30 KT LATE THU
NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRI EVENING.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
AT 18Z AND 00Z HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD NEAR GALE FORCE AT 30-33
KT. PEAK SEAS TO 10 FT LATE THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT FRI NIGHT.
$$
MUNDELL
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Mar 5 2014 4:25AM EST
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