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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

By The Associated Press | Posted - Mar. 5, 2014 at 2:31 a.m.



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AXPZ20 KNHC 050925

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC WED MAR 5 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 02N105W TO 04N111W.

ITCZ FROM 04N111W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF

AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 27N127W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING

SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND

LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTING

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.

TWO DECAYING SETS OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 7 FT OR GREATER COVERING NEARLY ALL OF

THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. THIS REGION OF SWELL WILL CONTINUE

TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 8 FT

BY WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS APPROACHING FAR NW

WATERS...WITH MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS TO 12-13 FT...BUILDING TO 15-

17 FT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL ALSO SPREAD SE

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF

NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND

EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE

FLOW.

GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING 30 KT LATE THU

NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRI EVENING.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE

AT 18Z AND 00Z HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD NEAR GALE FORCE AT 30-33

KT. PEAK SEAS TO 10 FT LATE THU WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT FRI NIGHT.

$$

MUNDELL

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Mar 5 2014 4:25AM EST

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The Associated Press

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