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AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW



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482

AXPZ20 KNHC 040920

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1005 UTC TUE MAR 4 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH SNAKES FROM FROM 02N80W TO 01N86W TO 03N92W

TO 02N87W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N97W TO 05N106W TO 04N113W TO

07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF

05N87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N124W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING

SOUTHWARD TO AROUND 20N. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND

LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SUPPORTING

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N.

A DECAYING SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING MUCH OF THE

FORECAST AREA W OF 105W...AND REACHING AS FAR E AS 100W. THE

SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH WED...WITH SEAS EXPECTED

TO DROP BELOW 8 FT BY WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER NEW SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN FAR NW WATERS...WITH

MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS TO 15 FT. THIS AREA OF SWELL WILL SPREAD SE

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS IT DECAYS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

YET ANOTHER SET OF LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS IS FORECAST TO REACH

THE FAR NW WATERS MIDWEEK... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 15 FT

OVER FAR NW WATERS BY WED NIGHT.

WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THE NEXT COUPLE OF

NIGHTS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 20 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND

EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH IS THE PEAK TIME OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE

FLOW.

LOOKING AHEAD...GFS MODEL SHOWS TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS REACHING

30 KT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY

DIMINISHING TO BELOW 20 KT BY FRIDAY EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS

WERE INDICATED DURING THIS PERIOD INITAILLY...BUT MOST RECENT

MODEL GUIDANCE AT 18Z AND 00Z HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD...AWAY

FROM POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC GALE WIND EVENT.

$$

MUNDELL

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Tue Mar 4 2014 4:20AM EST

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Associated Press

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