SALT LAKE CITY — The following words have rarely been said in recent memory: If BYU loses to Utah State, the Cougars will be the worst FBS team in Utah.

That’s the harsh reality facing BYU this week as it prepares for a Friday night match-up against the Aggies in Logan.

Look at the stark contrast between the two teams: Utah State has a Heisman candidate and BYU doesn’t, and the Aggies are contending for a conference title and BYU can’t.

The large-scale change in college football has also altered the landscape of college ball in Utah, and the Cougars are falling behind their other FBS peers.

Nearly every pundit will argue struggling offense resulting in a BYU loss could launch Provo into a full-blown meltdown. So, it is safe to say the pressure is solely on BYU’s shoulders.

If this game becomes an offensive battle, the odds are heavily stacked in Utah State’s favor.

So, if the Cougars are to take the heat off themselves with a big win this week, they will need to ride to victory on the shoulders of their defense.

Thus, Friday's BYU-Utah State match-up will be decided by who plays better: Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton or BYU’s defense?

#poll

Why this match-up?

Frankly, BYU’s script for winning has changed completely from how it won games 20 years ago. These days, the Cougars try to manage the game, score when they can, control field position, and let their defense attack. It’s a conservative game plan that has had mixed results.

This philosophy forces BYU’s defense to minimize scoring opportunities as much as possible. Right now, the Cougars are ranked 27th in scoring defense at 17.5 points a game. The BYU offense is 103rd in passing, and the Cougars are scoring 26.5 points in four games. If anything, BYU’s offense will be worse against a quality opponent like the Aggies, especially if they don’t have wide receiver Cody Hoffman again.

Conversely, Utah State is scoring 40.4 points a game and is giving up only 17 points a game. Utah State has the ability to beat teams in a variety of ways. It has outmuscled teams (Air Force, San Jose State) and done well in primarily defensive contests (a 17-14 loss to USC).

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The change from four years ago is startling, great enough to overhaul the longstanding order for the state of college football in Utah.

Looking at the numbers alone, Utah State has a heavy offensive advantage. So the Cougars have no way to win this game other than to put everything on LB Kyle Van Noy and company controlling the game’s flow.

Who wins this match-up?

BYU’s defense is the best in the state, but its offense is the worst of the FBS teams in the state. The game plan for beating BYU has been showcased several times this year, and it starts with forcing QB Taysom Hill to match the opposition’s quarterback step for step. Against Keeton, that isn’t a fair fight.

With the game being in Logan, Utah State has the advantage against BYU. So far, the only defense Keeton has struggled against was USC, and the Trojans beat him using a compliment of strong defensive line play and an above-average secondary. BYU’s defensive line is decent but not great, and the secondary has had questions from Week 1.

BYU may be able to keep Utah State to only 28 points in the game, but the problem lies in BYU having to match the Aggies.

The Cougars haven’t been able to match, or much less contain, the one talented quarterback they’ve faced this season (Utah's Travis Wilson), and it is doubtful they will this week against Keeton.

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