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SALT LAKE CITY — The Jazz have the All-Star Break to rest and look ahead to the playoffs. With 28 games left the Jazz could move a lot in the standings over the next 2 months.
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The Jazz are four and a half games out of fourth place. First is a look at the Jazz's schedule, then a look at the teams surrounding the Jazz in the standing and how the Jazz could end up in the standings.
February:
The rest of the month holds three home games, games the Jazz could win. The first is hosting the Warriors on the 19th. The Warriors are reeling lately. Since the return of Andrew Bogut have fallen on hard times. They have lost five straights and in those five games they have given up 118 points per game. This is a big game for the Jazz, a win would put them into a tie for sixth-place in the West.
The next game is on the road against the Clippers. This won't be easy, the Jazz are bad on the road and the Clippers are great at home. The next two home games will go a long way in the season. They are the Celtics and the Hawks. They have lost an earlier meeting with each team.
The Celtics are 8-2 over their past 10 and making waves since Rajon Rondo has been hurt. They have been holding teams to under 90 points per game. The Hawks and the Celtics are not good on the road. Hawks are a game under .500 and the Celtics are only 8-15. At worst the Jazz should split these games and end the month 2-2, or 32-26.
March:
The March schedule might be the toughest part of the year for the Jazz. They play five of their first seven games on the road in a short span against top competition. The first game is against the Bobcats at home, which should be an easy win, Bobcats are 12-40.
Then the Jazz play at the Bucks, Cavs, Bulls, Knicks in one week. Then they host the Pistons, travel to the Oklahoma City for a rematch with the Thunder then host the Grizzlies and the Knicks. The team's combined average 30 wins.
Jazz should win the first two games against the Bucks and Cavs. The Jazz have already lost to the Bulls, at home, the Knicks are a team the Jazz haven't played yet. They are second in the East and both games will be tough.
The Jazz barely beat the Pistons on the road earlier, but the Pistons are a different team now. The Thunder probably won't be happy so a road game probably won't end well. The Grizzlies are a team that is slowly slipping and the Jazz need to win there to make up ground if they want a high seed.
If the Jazz win their home games they could get out of this stretch 6-3, but then it just keep coming. They will travel to play the Rockets, Spurs and Mavs in a Texas road trip. They should beat the Mavs, who are floundering six games under .500. The Rockets and Spurs are a different story.
Rockets are the team that put a 45-point thrashing on the Jazz and the Jazz rarely win in San Antonio. The Jazz will host the 76ers, Suns and Nets and travel to the Trailblazers to finish the month.
How the Jazz handle home games they should win will determine March. The Jazz have a .769 home winning percentage. If that holds, which it should come pretty close, they should be 6-1 at home. With nine road games the Jazz will need to go 2-7 to go .500 on the month. Wins at Milwaukee and Cleveland should happen, while road games against Portland and the Mavs should at least produce a split. Jazz have a good chance at going 9-7.
This would put the Jazz at 41-34.
April:
In April the Jazz will play every team they will be fighting for playoff spots with, except Houston and the Lakers. They get the Blazers and Nuggets at home and Warriors and Grizzlies at home. The remaining games include home games against the Hornets and Thunder with a home and home with the Timberwolves.
Eight games that will decide the season. The home team has won every game between the Jazz and Nuggets and Blazers, so having them at home will help. The Warriors and Grizzlies have won a game in Utah. The Jazz will need to beat all those teams to really move up the standings.
Jazz should beat the Hornets and T-Wolves at home and will struggle against the Thunder at home and Wolves on the road. 45-38 would lead to a 7 or 8-seed and a quick turn home. Stealing two wins this month, 47 wins could have them in a higher seed.
The Jazz will probably beat some teams they shouldn't and lose to some they shouldn't, but it basically all equals out.
Ultimately, 45-47 wins is what the Jazz should reach over the last 28 games.
Contenders:
If the Jazz win 47 where they land in the playoffs would all depend on how other teams finish.
The Grizzlies currently hold the fourth seed at 33-18. They have 31 games left. They would have to go 14-17 to give the Jazz a shot. They have 12 home games and 19 road games left. At one point they were 14-3, so since Dec. 7 they were 19-15 with a favorable schedule. They play the second easiest schedule of the contending teams.
The Nuggets hold the fifth seed with a record of 33-21. The Jazz are three games behind them. With 28 games left they would have to go 14-14. They have 16 home and 12 road games left. They are very good at home, 22-3 on the season. Their remaining schedule isn't that hard and a lot of home games will make it hard for the Jazz to overcome them. They were 12-12 in the middle of December and 21-9 since.
The Warriors are the team in front of the Jazz in the six spot. They are a team that is trending down. They are 30-22. With 30 games left they have 18 at home and 12 on the road. They are a team that has gone through streaks. Going 14-4 pushed them to 22-10 and up in the standings, but have started to fall off since. Them going 15-15 would have the Jazz overtaking them. It is both doable and might be high.
The Rockets are a spot below the Jazz and a game-and-a-half back. They are 29-26 with 27 games left, 15 home and 12 road. They play the easiest schedule of these teams. They would have to make up 2 games, going roughly 18-9 to push the Jazz down.
The teams looking in are the Blazers and the Lakers. The Blazers play the toughest schedule in the league the rest of the way out. With 29 games they get 16 at home and would have to make up 5 games to get past the Jazz. That would be a 22-7 run.
The Lakers need more help, they would have to go 22-6. They have 14 at home and on the road. They have a pretty easy schedule, but unless a game-changing miracle happens the Lakers are in real rough shape.
The Jazz were looking like a team falling out of the playoffs just the week of the All-Star game, now they are looking at where they finish in the playoffs, and not thinking if.
