Cougar Tracks: Monday Musings

A busy month of November is underway, with the BYU football team moving into its WAC-themed final quarter of the regular season, while the Cougar hoopsters tip off their 2012-13 campaign with a first-month slate that features a high-profile trip to New York City.

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The football team's 5-4 record is a disappointment, considering the preseason expectations, and the established benchmark of a ten-win season is no longer mathematically possible. Winning out would mean a 9-4 campaign and a five-game win streak to end the season, but it's unlikely that such a finish would sneak the Cougars back into the season-ending Top 25 polls—another annual program expectation.

BYU's eighth consecutive bowl appearance will be a notable achievement, and a bowl win would be Bronco Mendenhall's sixth in eight appearances.

Yes, BYU still needs a sixth win before we can start talking about bowl bids, but with 1-8 Idaho next up, that sixth victory is a stone-cold lock (BYU is a 37-point favorite).

Stone-cold may also describe the fans in attendance at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday night. The weather forecast is for a chance of precipitation and temperatures in the high 30s—-and that's in the daytime. The BYU-Idaho game is slated for an 8:15pm kickoff.

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BYU's subpar performance in the win-loss column is concurrent with one of the most dominant defensive performances in BYU Football history, which makes this season's record a little harder to take.

BYU is ranked in the top 10 nationally in rush yards allowed (7th), pass yards allowed (9th), total yards allowed (4th) and points allowed (7th). The Cougars are also 1st nationally in red zone defense (scoring percentage) and 3rd in third-down conversion defense.

The disconnect occurs on the offensive side of the ball, where BYU is 61st in rush yards, 78th in passing yards, 79th in total yards and 78th in scoring.

The ranking disparity between BYU's offensive and defensive numbers is significant, but not necessarily unique.

As you can see, BYU is hardly alone in fielding a dominant defense while dealing with a struggling offense. However, the top defensive teams have generally capitalized on a stout defense and turned dominance on that side of ball into wins.

The average record of the other nine teams ranked with BYU in the scoring defense top 10 is 8-1; BYU's 5-4 record stands the Cougars as an outlier, underscoring the difficulty BYU has had in taking advantage of Bronco's best defense yet.

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I'm excited to see what running back Jamaal Williams can do with the remaining games of his freshman season. Williams has 516 yards on the ground and 226 more through the air; his 742 all-purpose yards leave him only 19 yards behind Cody Hoffman for the team lead (had BYU opted to use Williams on kickoff returns, he'd certainly be approaching a thousand all-purpose yards).

With four games left, including a bowl game, Williams would need to average 121 rushing yards per game to reach the 1,000-yard plateau. Idaho and New Mexico State (Nov. 24) rank 98th and 106th in rush defense, respectively, while San Jose State (Nov. 17) and San Diego State (projected for the Poinsettia Bowl) are ranked 35th and 27th--so it's a mixed bag in terms of what to expect in terms of Williams' run game production heading down the stretch.

Admittedly, the millennium mark is probably a little unrealistic, but Williams can still turn in a statistically impressive season and set the table for a prolific BYU career, should he stay healthy.

Williams' 4.8 yards/carry average is a great place to start as a 17-year old, while his 11.3 yards/reception mark him as one of BYU's more exciting backfield receiving options the Cougars have had in years. Of players with more than five receptions this season, Williams is second only to Cody Hoffman (12.3) in yards per catch.

Of course, much of Williams receiving yardage has been accumulated on shovel passes, but they count as receiving yards, and however it is he starts the play, he has a knack of ending the play well downfield. Credit offensive coordinator Brandon Doman for introducing the shovel to the BYU offense and seeing it pay off with the right personnel.

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Bronco Mendenhall is 8-1 in games played after an idle week, with the only loss coming in his rookie season of 2005, when BYU came off an open week and lost at home to TCU, 51-50 in overtime. Bronco's post-bye record will go to 9-1 this week, as I'm not sure BYU would even need a day off, let alone a week off, to get ready for Idaho.

The Vandals are dead last among FBS teams in scoring offense, and in the bottom ten nationally in rushing offense, total offense, scoring defense, pass defense, pass efficiency defense, and total defense. They do throw the ball quite a bit (59th in pass yards), as teams will tend to do when being on the negative end of a an average 42-16 scoreline. The Vandals don't throw it well, however, ranked 107th in pass efficiency.

Oh, Idaho also turns it over a lot. In fact, the Muscovites have turned the ball over more than any other team in the country (27 turnovers lost).

Name your score, Cougs.

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Dave Rose's 2012-13 basketball team tips off the regular season Friday night home to Tennessee State--a team that last season won 20 games and played in the postseason CIT. The Friday opener and next Tuesday's home game with Georgia State (a 22-win CIT team in 2011-12) are the first two games of BYU's "Coaches vs. Cancer Classic" slate, with the final two games set for the Barclays Center in Brooklyn against Florida State (Nov. 16) and Notre Dame or St. Joseph's (Nov. 17).

BYU's two exhibition games cemented three of the Cougars' five starting spots--those belonging to PG Matt Carlino, SF Tyler Haws and C Brandon Davies. The SG and PF positions are in flux, to the extent that Rose used different combinations at both spots in both tune-up games.

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In the exhibition debut v. SE Oklahoma State, Craig Cusick got the start at shooting guard, while Josh Sharp started at power forward.

Cusick: 5 pts (2/3 fg, 1/2 3pfg), 2 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 0 to, 17 mp

Sharp: 7 pts (3/7 fg, 0/1 3pfg, 1/2 ft), 5 reb, 1 st, 1 stl, 1 to, 19 mp

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In the exhibition finale against Findlay, Brock Zylstra started at the "two," while Nate Austin opened at the "four."

Zylstra: 14 pts--all in the second half (4/7 fg, 1/2 3pfg, 5/5 ft), 3 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl, 0 to, 21 mp

Austin: 7 pts (3/4 fg, 1/1 3pfg), 3 reb, 2 ast, 1 stl, 1 to, 20 mp

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Cusick had a much more productive game coming off the bench in the second game, scoring 12 points on four 3pfg makes, in roughly the same amount of floor time (19 mp).

Sharp scored only four points in the second game, but was a force on the glass, with seven rebounds--including five on the offensive end--in almost an identical number of minutes (20 mp).

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Zylstra produced well whether starting or coming off the bench (he scored 17 points in only 15 minutes v. SEOSU), while Austin played better in the starting lineup as opposed to coming in as a substitute. In the exhibition debut, Austin fouled out after only 13 minutes, in a four-point performance.

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Based on the exhibition outings and some of the metrics noted above, I wouldn't be surprised if Rose opens the season with the lineup he put on the floor to begin last Saturday's 90-61 win over Findlay, but until the ball gets tossed up on Friday night, it's anyone's guess.

A Carlino/Zylstra/Haws/Austin/Davies starting five would be his most experienced lineup, and a tall group to boot, with wings at 6'6" (Zylstra) and 6'5" (Haws), and a frontcourt going 6'10" (Austin) and 6'9" (Davies).

Cusick would be a solid spell at shooting guard, Sharp is an energetic and improving frontcourt olayer with tons of bounce, while newcomers Cory Calvert (point) Raul Delgado (wing) and Agui Ambrosino (PF) complete Rose's reliable two-deep, with Austin able to play as a backup post in addition to his role at the "four."

For the time being, Ian Harward and Anson Winder are "others receiving votes," until such a time as Harward (back issues) becomes an every day "full go" and Winder recovers from his ankle injury.

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Davies, Haws and Zylstra (BYU's three team captains, not coincidentally) were the only three Cougars to average in double-figure scoring through two exhibition games, accounting for 52 of the 96.5 points BYU averaged in the tune-ups.

The captains' trio combined to shoot 54% from the field, 54% from the arc and 83% from the stripe. Notably, Davies averaged 19.5 ppg in only 20.5 mpg, while Zylstra scored 15.5 ppg in only 18.0 mpg.

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While Haws' free throw shooting did not count toward his BYU record streak (48 and consecutive and counting, from 2009-10), his 9-for-9 performance in the exhibition season was at the same time unsurprising and unusually comforting. BYU will be a better free throw team than last season, simply because Haws will be the guy taking a lot of them.

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Carlino had a quiet couple of exhibition games (5.0 ppg on 33% shooting), but I'm okay with BYU's sophomore starting point guard. He had 14 assists and only two turnovers, and realizes he doesn't need to shoulder the backcourt scoring load.

Carlino's shooting will come around, and as he continues to learn where and how he can be most effective as a scorer, he and BYU will be in great shape at the point.

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Delgado and Ambrosino just need to settle down a bit, and they'll be fine, too.

Agui boarded well (6.0 rpg) but shot poorly (2/7 fg, 1/5 3pfg) and saw his time limited due to foul trouble in the Findlay game (3 pf in 11 mp). He was visibly frustrated and seemed guilty of wanting to do too much right off the bat. As a junior college transfer expected to contribute and fill a hole left by Noah Hartsock, Amborinso undoubtedly feels pressure to perform. Again, he needs to relax; he's a good player, and that will show.

The same goes for Delgado, who was BYU's leading non-starter in the two exhibition games, and played well, for the most part, averaging 9.0 ppg on 50% shooting, 44% three-point accuracy and a two-for-two outing at the stripe. On the downside, he fouled too much (6.5 fouls/40 mp) and led the team in turnovers.

Whether it was in reference to Delgado or others, Rose noted a particular concern when he talked during Saturday's postgame about certain playing time situations and how they "sometimes lead to other agendas."

Rose said he observed certain players "trying to prove that maybe they're better than this player, or maybe they should play this position and not that position...there are all those kinds of issues."

"Hopefully we'll get us all on the same page for one goal," said Rose on Saturday. "for the best shot offensively, for every possession, and also defensively where we can execute time in and time out."

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