College football teams to buy or sell in 2012

Every August there are college football teams that get a lot of hype heading into the season. This time a year ago, a lot of people were talking about how good Florida State was going to be. The Seminoles lost four games.

This year, the hype machine is once again churning out new teams, so let’s take a look at them and see whose stock to buy and who to stay away from.

USC. The Trojans are being picked by many experts to win the national title this year. With Matt Barkley coming back and two of the best young receivers in football by his side, it’s easy to see why. The talent is definitely there — on the front line. The ones are as good as any team in the country, but the depth is an issue. USC is still feeling the effects of the scholarship reductions the NCAA placed it under a couple of years ago.

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If USC stays healthy, it will get to the national title game, I have no doubt, but I simply don’t think the Trojans can. They play some very physical teams early in the schedule like Stanford, Cal, Utah and Washington. They get Oregon at home later and should beat the Ducks, but they will have to beat them twice to play for the national title. I don’t think they’ll be able to, and I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those physical teams pulls off an early upset. If USC does have a weakness, it is stopping the run, and it will definitely be tested in that regard against Stanford, Cal and Utah. I buy USC as a great team, probably even a 10-win team, but a national champion? No. SELL

Florida State Seminoles. The Seminoles are one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 17 returning starters and 68 returning lettermen. The schedule is not that tough either. Florida State’s toughest road tests are at NC State and Virginia Tech, while it will have its biggest overall tests at home in Florida and Clemson.

The defense could be the best in the nation with nine returning starters from a unit that was very good last season. Meanwhile, veteran quarterback EJ Manuel returns as well to lead an offense that could be very good also. With a favorable schedule and a great defense, I like Florida State as a dark horse to appear in the national title game. BUY

Texas Longhorns. The Longhorns are ranked 15th in both polls, but many experts believe they are a top 10 team. I don’t buy it. Texas has yet to solve its quarterback situation, which has been terrible the last couple of years. David Ash is not the answer. The defense should be really good again, but the Longhorns will be very one dimensional offensively. This is probably an eight or nine win team again in 2012 but not a national title contender. SELL

Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The coaches put Notre Dame at number 23 in the USA Today Poll. That may be about right, but the Irish will not be in the top 25 at the end of the season. The schedule is too tough with road trips to Michigan State, USC and Oklahoma. I believe they’ll lose all three of those games. The Irish also play two neutral site games, one in Dublin against Navy (a very losable game) and another in Chicago against Miami.

BYU, Stanford and Michigan also go to South Bend, so there are not many breaks for the Irish this season. SELL.

Ohio State Buckeyes. Urban Meyer has a proven track record of turning programs around. When he left for Florida, I didn’t hesitate to say he would play in the national title game in his second season in Gainesville. Most people laughed at me then, but if I said he’d have the Buckeyes there in 2013, would any of you be surprised?

If you’ve seen any of ESPN’s all access looks at the program Meyer is running in Columbus, you’re probably a believer. The talent is there, including a perfect quarterback for Meyer’s system in Braxton Miller. The defense will be very stout again in 2012 as well. If the Buckeyes were eligible for postseason this year, they might be playing in the Rose Bowl. BUY

Georgia Bulldogs. I really love the Bulldogs this year. In fact, they could pull an upset in the SEC championship against what would likely be a beat-up LSU or Alabama team. Quarterback Aaron Murray set a school record with 35 touchdowns last season. At a school with a very rich quarterback tradition, that’s saying something.

Losing Isaiah Crowell in the backfield does hurt, but Georgia should be able to plug in Ken Malcome and get similar production in the run game. The Bulldogs also get a very good scheduling draw, missing out on LSU, Alabama and Arkansas. I expect they’ll trip up either at South Carolina or at Auburn, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they end up undefeated heading into the SEC Championship game. BUY

Local teams

BYU Cougars. The Cougars bring back a very strong defense, which means that they should be in every game they play in. The question is, can the Cougars get over the hump? One player told me that the Cougars are sick of winning 10 games. They want to go undefeated and play in a BCS bowl game. This may be the year.The biggest tests of the season should be Utah, Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. BYU likely won’t be favored in any of those games (unless it wins the first couple of them), but none of those games aren’t winnable. There’s not an Alabama or USC on the schedule. That means there’s a lot of upside to this year’s BYU team. BUY

Utah. The Utes are a talented football team. All their major playmakers are back from 2011. John White, DeVonte Christopher, Reggie Dunn and Dres Anderson are all back and made up the bulk of the offensive output from a year ago. With arguably the best defense in the Pac-12, it seemed like the only thing the Utes were missing was a quarterback. This year, Jordan Wynn is healthy again, which makes this team a big threat to do some damage.

That said, though this team may be talented, there is a lot of downside to it. If Wynn goes down again, the offense will struggle again. Unfortunately, it seems like that is only a matter of time, especially with inexperienced tackles protecting him. However, the running attack may be even better than last season with junior college transfer Kelvin York added to the backfield with White. I’m selling the Utes as a 10-win team, but they should get to eight wins, maybe even nine. With expectations through the roof on the hill since their two BCS bowl wins, let’s not forget that’s pretty good, especially in the Pac-12. BUY

Utah State. I like the Aggies this year, even though they lose two of their biggest playmakers from 2011. Looking at Utah State’s schedule, it’s pretty easy to say that it should win eight games. The four losses should be against Utah, at Wisconsin, at BYU and at Louisiana Tech.

However, the Aggies could pull one of those games out. The best bet would be on Louisiana Tech. If they did that, the Aggies would likely win the conference. I’m selling that idea, but the Aggies will go bowling again in 2012, likely with an 8-4 or 7-5 record. BUY

Trevor Amicone is the editor of byutahinsiders.com, a website that will be launched before the 2012 football season to cover both Utah and BYU football as well as national college football. Follow his Twitter feed at @TrevorAmicone.

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