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Believe it or not, there is a perfect storm scenario wherein Utah ends up with a losing record in 2012 and not in a bowl game. In fact, the possibilities of this “perfect storm” are actually higher than you might think.
Here’s how it might happen:
Keep in mind, these are not predictions, just a path to the worst-case scenario if it did happen.
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As close as the Utes might be to disaster in 2012, they are just as close to another undefeated dream season. Here's what would have to happen.The first domino would fall when Ute fans' worst fears are realized and they find out that the offensive tackles are not ready to play in the Pac-12. Northern Colorado would not expose this, but Utah State could, and BYU certainly would.
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In turn, a weak offensive line leads to quarterback Jordan Wynn getting hit a lot. Wynn, being a fragile quarterback to begin with, gets injured (heaven forbid) against BYU, and the Utes drop the rivalry game.
Meanwhile, the injury bug also hits the defensive secondary when either corner Mo Lee or Ryan Lacy go down (once again, heaven forbid). The Utes are not deep at corner and they cannot sustain a long-term injury to either one. The two starters (Lee and Lacy) are very good and capable of doing a good job against the incredible Pac-12 receivers they'd face, but if either gets hurt, it’s going to be a long season.
Now obviously injuries can ruin any team’s season, but Wynn’s injury is an occurrence that doesn’t seem out of the question given his past, and an injury to the Utes’ secondary would hurt them the most. No one wishes injuries upon anyone, but it is definitely a part of football, which is why depth is so important — something Utah does not have at corner.
Utah starts the season 2-2 after falling to pass-happy Arizona State in Tempe. Then USC comes to town and tramples the Utes who are without a quarterback to keep up with the vaunted Trojan offense, which exploits the thin secondary with the two most talented receivers in the conference.
Next, the Utes go to Pasadena and pull out a squeaker against the Bruins, after all, the Utes do still stop the run, and that’s really all UCLA has done successfully recently.
Up against quality quarterbacks and tall, skilled, NFL-type receivers, the Utes lose the next four to Oregon State, Cal, Washington State and Washington. With just two more games left in the season, the Utes are officially not eligible for a bowl game. Utah likely pulls out two games against Arizona and Colorado but finishes 5-7.
Like I said, these are not predictions but just a what-if scenario if Jordan Wynn was to go down under heavy pressure caused by an inexperienced offensive line, and a thin secondary gets hit by some injuries.
Even if Wynn were to stay healthy yet still face constant pressure, the Utes would still struggle. We saw how Wynn did against pressure versus USC last year. It wasn’t good.
Meanwhile, if the Utes were in the Big Ten or the Big East, they could sustain injuries in the secondary and deal with inexperience there because those are conferences built around pounding the ball on the ground. However, in the Pac-12, it seems like every offense spreads you out and throws it. It also seems like every team has a tall, NFL-quality receiver on its roster. USC has two.
Thus, in the Pac-12, the Utes cannot survive with a beat-up secondary that is already thin.
A combination of an injured corner and a weak edge on the offensive line (something that seems like it could be very possible) would spell disaster for the Utes.
The Utes’ season hinges on the offensive line getting solidified, especially at both tackle positions, and the secondary remaining healthy. It’s as simple as that. If that happens, the Utes could compete for the Pac-12 South division title and an appearance in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Trevor Amicone is the editor of byutahinsiders.com, a website that will be launched before the 2012 football season to cover both Utah and BYU football as well as national college football. Follow his Twitter feed at @TrevorAmicone.
