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BYU breaks into the BCS Standings this week--at #25. Hawaii is up one spot, from 16th to 15th. Boise State is down a spot, from 18th to 19th. BYU's computer numbers are better than Boise State's (BYU is tied for 24th in the computer rankings--Boise State is unranked). Hawaii's computer numbers are 22nd this week.
Breaking down this week's BCS numbers...
Of the 25 ranked teams, the breakdown is as follows (with variation in number of teams in the ranking from last week's standings):
SEC: 4 teams (-1)
ACC: 4 teams (E)
Big 12: 4 teams (E)
Pac 10: 3 teams (E)
Big Ten: 3 teams (-1)
Big East: 4 teams (+1)
WAC: 2 teams (E)
MWC: 1 team (+1)
Biggest BCS movers this week: Connecticut (24th to 20th) and Wisconsin (25th to 21st) each moved up 4 spots on a quiet week for big movers, while of course BYU went from unranked to 25th, and South Florida went from unranked to 23rd.
Biggest droppers: Clemson from 15th to 22nd, Oregon from 2nd to 9th, Oklahoma from 4th to 10th.
Overrated (high poll numbers/low computer numbers): Boise State (19)--15th and 17th in the polls; unranked by the computers, Hawaii (15)--13th in the polls; 22nd by the computers, Texas (13)--11th in the pollsl; 17th by the computers.
Underrated (low poll numbers/high computer numbers): Boston College (14)--16th in the polls, 10th by the computers, Connecticut (20)--21st in the polls; 15th by the computers.
Note: the polls mentioned are the USA Today Coaches' and Harris Interactive polls. There are 6 computer rankings--each team's high and low computer numbers are tossed out, leaving the four computer rankings to make up the team's computer score.
The leaders/champions of the six BCS conferences are all in the top 8 of the BCS Standings this week. It appears that securing an automatic bid via the "Top 16/ahead of a BCS Champ" rule is unlikely for Hawaii or Boise State, meaning a Top 12 finish will be required to nail down an automatic BCS berth. Finishing Top 14 would also make those teams eligible for the at-large pool.
The Big 10, SEC, Big 12, Pac 10 and ACC Champs are all assured of finishing ahead of the WAC Champ, and if West Virginia beats UConn this weekend (as expected), the "Top 16" door will slam shut. A UConn win might leave the door open a crack, but the WAC would have to wait and see just how much juice 20th-ranked UConn would get for a win over the #3 Mountaineers--it could be that such a win would vault the Huskies past the WAC champ. Again, odds are West Virginia will make the question moot.
So, can either Hawaii or Boise State make it into a BCS bowl? The fact Boise State dropped in this week's BCS standings and is unranked by the computers cannot be encouraging--even a win over Hawaii might not be enough to get the Broncos into the Top 14, considering Hawaii's paltry computer component. If Hawaii beats Boise State, Boise's lack of computer strength will not help the Warriors--so it may come down to the pollsters, who will be watching the national telecast Friday for signs of BCS worthiness. Right now, this is way too close to call--and don't forget, a Hawaii win over Boise State would all be for naught, if Washington goes into Honolulu and wins the following week.