BCS Update



Estimated read time: 3-4 minutes

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Taking a look at this week's BCS numbers...

Of the 25 ranked teams, the breakdown is as follows (with variation in number of teams in the ranking from last week's standings):

SEC: 7 teams (+2)

ACC: 4 teams (-1)

Big 12: 4 teams (E)

Pac 10: 3 teams (E)

Big Ten: 3 teams (E)

Big East: 2 teams (-1)

WAC: 2 teams (E)

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Non-BCS team Hawaii moves down 2 spots (from 14th to 16th), and non-BCS team Boise State moves up two spots (from 22nd to 20th). Once again, Hawaii counts zero computer points, while Boise State is ranked 22nd by the computers--19th by the two polls in question (Coach's and Harris).

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Biggest BCS movers this week: Florida from 20th to 15th, Kansas from 8th to 4th, Virginia from 23rd to 19th and Clemson from 25th to 21st. Penn State, Tennessee and Kentucky went from unranked to 23rd, 24th and 25th, respectively.

Biggest droppers: Boston College from 2nd to 8th, Arizona State from 4th to 9th, Alabama from 17th to 22nd.

Overrated (high poll numbers/low computer numbers): West Virginia (6)--ranked 6th in the polls, 12th by the computers; Hawaii (16)--ranked 10th and 12th in the polls--unranked by the computers: USC (17) ranked 14th and 15th in the polls, 23rd by the computers.

Underrated (low poll numbers/high computer numbers): Virginia (19)--ranked 21st in the polls, 14th by the computers; Arizona State (9)--ranked 9th in the polls, 5th by the computers.

Note: the polls mentioned are the USA Today Coaches' and Harris Interactive polls. There are 6 computer rankings--each team's high and low computer numbers are tossed out, leaving the four computer rankings to make up the team's computer score.

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I know that every BYU fan is thinking: "even if Hawaii is undefeated, there's no way they get in a BCS game with their miserable schedule, is there?"

Then, the next thought, closely aligned with the first, is: "if Boise State finishes with only one loss (including a road win over nationally-ranked Hawaii), could they get in again?"

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Good questions. My gut reaction is that Hawaii will still have a tough time leapfrogging four teams ahead of it to finish Top 12, but could either Hawaii or Boise State finish Top 16, ahead of a BCS league champ?

Let's look at the BCS leagues:

ACC: Title favorites BC, Virginia and Virginia Tech would all finish ahead of Hawaii/BSU. If a Clemson or a Wake Forest rises up and steals the title, it could be interesting, but that's very unlikely.

Big East: Connecticut or West Virginia wins (no title game). Longshot is Cincy. No dice for the WAC.

Big Ten: Ohio State or Michigan wins. No dice for the WAC.

Big 12: With 4 teams in the Top 14 right now, forget it. No dice for the WAC.

Pac-10: Champs Oregon, Arizona State or USC would all finish ahead of Hawaii/BSU--no dice for the WAC.

SEC: 3 teams currently ahead of Hawaii. SEC Champ finishes below the highest-rated WAC team? Yeah, right. No dice.

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Things can change, and a lot can happen in the next four weeks, but the "Top 16" option doesn't appear to be in the cards this year--it's gonna take "Top 12" (guaranteed spot). So, can Boise State go from 20th to 12th on the strength of wins over Utah State, Idaho and nationally-ranked Hawaii? I don't think so.

Can Hawaii go from 16th to 12th on the strength of wins over Fresno State, Nevada (road), Boise State and Washington? Hmmmm... we'll have to wait and see now, won't we. Having seen the Warriors struggle to dispatch such powerhouses as San Jose State and Louisiana Tech, I don't see UH finishing undefeated. But, if they do, the numbers-crunching will at the very least be interesting in 4 weeks...

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