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SALT LAKE CITY — "May the odds be ever in your favor."
Effie Trinket had it right, but when it comes to the NBA draft lottery, the odds are not always in your favor.
The Jazz have a 28 percent chance of getting a draft pick this year. They have a deal with Golden State that gives the Jazz the Warriors' pick if it is worse than 7. What needs to happen is that a team with the 8th through 14th worst record needs to win the lottery and get a top three pick.
This is where the Capitol dominates.
I did some research to see what the history has shown. Is it greater than or less than the 28 percent chance on paper?
I'm no John Hollinger, but between nearly a half a dozen sports minds we came up with this formula. We were looking for any team from 1994 to the present day that jumped from draft position 8-14 to get a top three pick. In the 18 years that the lottery has had this format, only three teams have leapt from a position of 8 or worse.
- It first happened in 1999 when the Charlotte Hornets jumped from the 14 spot to win the No. 3 pick with just a 0.73 percent chance. They selected Baron Davis from UCLA.
- Again it happened in 2001 when the Clippers leapt up from the 8 spot to grab the No. 2 overall pick with just a 3.38 percent chance. The Clips selected Tyson Chandler, then traded him to the Bulls for Elton Brand.
- Finally, it happened in 2008 when the Bulls jumped from the 9 spot to get the No. 1 pick. Chicago selected Derrick Rose to overcome their measly 1.7 percent chance.
The cold, hard data says that the Jazz have a 28 percent chance of a positive scenario happening, but over the course of 18 years, NBA lottery history has proven the odds to be a paltry 16.6 percent.
If the stars align, the Jazz will most likely get the No. 8 pick. Historically that has been a gold mine of a pick. Here are some of the names that have risen to stardom from the 8 spot.
Number 8 picks:
2011: Brandon Knight
2006: Rudy Gay
2004: Rafael Araujo (more iron than gold)
2003: T.J. Ford
2000: Jamal Crawford
1999: Andre Miller
1993: Vin Baker
1985: Detlef Schrempf
1983: Antoine Carr
1981 Tom Chambers
1979 Calvin Natt
1976 Robert Parish
1964 Willis Reed
Here's to hoping that the odds even themselves out in the Jazz's favor.
