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SALT LAKE CITY — A half-game lead with three games left isn't exactly locking anything up, but the Jazz do have all three games at home (Orlando Saturday, Phoenix Tuesday and Portland Thursday) so it's great that they control their own path.
The Tuesday date with the Suns could clinch it, but since they've lost seven in a row to Phoenix that one could be dicey. The Suns have a brutal final week though, facing the Clippers and Nuggets both in PHX, then Tuesday in Salt Lake with the Jazz before ending by hosting the Spurs Thursday.
So let's go ahead and walk the plank of ‘assumption'. Assume the Jazz hold on and get eighth or even sneak seventh. Who do Jazz fans want to see in the 1st round? Spurs or Thunder? They're going to get one of those teams, two of the top three or four teams on the planet.
Let's start at the top. NBA's hottest team is San Antonio, with two 11-game winning streaks this season and it's won 19 of its last 22 to pass Oklahoma City for the top spot in the West heading into this weekend.
The Spurs are plodding and boring no more. Third in scoring (102.3) and second in 3-point shooting with arguably the deepest team in the league - a roster loaded with veterans and kids. Remember this Spurs team DOESN'T WALK IT UP ANYMORE!
Jazz have earned their way to this spot, winning 18 of 31 since the All-Star break. The Jazz are the sixth highest scoring team in the NBA (99.2) and the fourth best rebounding group (43.9). 3-point shooting is one glaring difference between the two teams, with the Spurs 39%, second in NBA, while the Jazz are second to last 31.6%. But, surprisingly the Jazz tenth in the league in 3-point percentage defense.
Jazz have lost three out of four to San Antonio, and how ironic - the one win, the much-debated night when "Pop" left Duncan, Ginobli and Parker back in San Antonio, could turn out to be just enough to get the Jazz into the playoffs. That would certainly be a weather-beaten story line heading into a Jazz-Spurs first round series. All the bluster from boisterous fans ("height of arrogance" is what former Jazz assistant Phil Johnson called Popovich's decision to leave his Big 3 at home) about how "Pop" personally eroded the integrity of the NBA game (a certain oxymoron I think) should turn to a standing ovation. Thank you Greg! Because that one win might prove to be the one that gets the Jazz into the playoffs. It's the Suns and Rockets who should be furious.
Spurs would be an extremely challenging first round opponent. Spurs are healthy, dominant and are uber motivated by last season's stunning ending. #1 seed in the West losing to 8th seed Memphis. I would think San Antonio would take out the Jazz in four or five, but it's all about the experience and that would certainly accelerate the Jazz ‘big game' learning curve.
I would much prefer a first round matchup with Oklahoma City. The Thunder are younger than San Antonio, and their two-headed monster Kevin Durrant and Russell Westbrook feast on you from all over the floor. The Thunder are second in the NBA in Scoring (102.7) and sixth in rebounding. During the season OKC took 2 of the three meetings with the Jazz, but in their loss at EnergySolutions Arena, both Thunder superstars played.
Oklahoma City's been shaky lately, going just 5-5 allowing the Spurs to catch and pass them atop the West. Just the slightest hint of doubt in the Thunder's collective mindset could help the Jazz somehow make a series out of it. Remember OKC is a perimeter team, an immensely talented perimeter team, but if the shots aren't falling on a given night they can be beaten. I'd say OKC in four or five too.
Either way, pick your poison. Spoonful of Spurs or a clap of Thunder, this young Jazz team learns a ton and speeds the learning curve toward further playoff advances in the coming seasons.
Let me know what you think - who would you like to see the Jazz meet in the playoffs? Hit me up on Twitter @tksportsbeat or if 140 characters aren't enough, email me tom.kirkland@ksl.com
