Cougar Tracks: Heading East, Moving On

The BYU Basketball team makes a rare late January foray into non-conference play Wednesday in Blacksburg, Va.,visiting Virginia Tech and seeking to boost a postseason portfolio that took a hit with a home loss last week.

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Although BYU has wins over league leaders Oregon (Pac-12; 15-5 overall), Nevada (WAC; 16-3 overall) and Weber State (Big Sky; 15-3 overall), the Cougars lack what most would call a nationally significant win. Starting with the game at Virginia Tech, and continuing with home games versus St. Mary's and Gonzaga, the Cougars are presented with three consecutive chances to record resume-building victories that will also put a little more air into BYU's postseason bubble.

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While not one of the nation's elite teams this season, the Hokies enter the meeting with BYU on a positive note, having just defeated nationally-ranked Virginia on the road in their last game. The win snapped a four-game losing skid and gave Seth Greenberg's team its first win in ACC play, after an 0-4 start. At 12-7 overall and now 1-4 in league, Virginia Tech is itself on the periphery of postseason consideration, but a win in Blacksburg would be a shot in the arm for the Cougars, while a road victory in the ACC would bolster BYU's bracket credentials.

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BYU and Virginia Tech are very disparate in how they play. The Cougars speed it up (12th in tempo on kenpom.com), the Hokies slow it down (280th in tempo).

The Cougars switch defenses but often rely on a zone to limit penetration. The Hokies play a suffocating man-to-man that limits clean catches and open shots on the perimeter.

The Cougars start a power forward-center combo in Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies that leads the team in scoring, with the pair combining to shoot 55% from the field and 77% from the free-throw line, while averaging 31.6 points per game between the two of them. The Hokies starting "4" and "5" shoot 41% and 62% respectively, while combining to average fewer than 13 points per game. Virginia Tech point guard Erick Green (16.1 ppg) and bench wing Dorenzo Hudson (11.7 ppg) are the team's only double-figure scorers.

Both team's account for an identical 28% of their total points on three-pointers, so BYU's reliance on the inside game can be identified as the potential difference-maker on Wednesday. Not only is BYU recently struggling to shoot the three (4-for-its-last-36), Virginia Tech leads the nation in three-point defense, allowing a paltry 25% at the arc. Sunday in Charlottesville, Virginia shot 1-for-14 from the arc against the Hokies--the fifth time this season a team has shot worse than 15% from distance against VT, and the sixth time a team has been held to only one or two three-point field goals (teams have shot 2/17, 1/17, 2/13, 2/11, 1/12 and 1/14 in those six games).

BYU is among the nation's leaders in rebound margin (a sketchy stat, admittedly), but also excels (8th nationally) in limiting opponents' offensive rebounds, at the same time Virginia Tech struggles to clear the defensive glass. Virginia grabbed 13 offensive rebounds on Sunday, leading to an 11-0 edge in second-chance points. Again, BYU's inside game can help create a potentially game-changing advantage. In the last two games, VT has been out-rebounded by 30, 85-55.

BYU doesn't take a ton of free throws, (21.5 fta/gm), but the Cougars take more than Virginia Tech (19.2), and they get to the line from the front line, with Hartsock (83% FT) and Davies (72%) having attempted 210 of BYU's 473 free throw attempts (44%). Virginia Tech's top two free throw-takers are the guards Green (86%) and Hudson (87%), with 134 of VT's 365 attempts (37%). You again see the emphasis: BYU's halfcourt inside-out game, versus Virginia Tech's backcourt-based, shoot-it-or-drive-it mentality. In the last two games, the Hokies have attempted only 13 free throws, making nine; their opponents have taken 43, making 32. Limiting VT's free throw attempts would be advisable; the Hokies are 18th nationally in FT%.

BYU is averaging 80 points per game. Virginia Tech is averaging 68, has scored fewer than 70 points 11 times in 19 games, and on Sunday at Virginia, set a season low in points scored, with 47. The Hokies also set a season-low in points allowed, with 45, and they have allowed fewer points than BYU's average in 18 of their 19 games. BYU wants to push it and score; the Hokies want to grind it down and stop you.

Whatever style you play, Greenberg's team will discover what you do best and try to shut it down. BYU has the benefit of offensive versatility and productivity from multiple spots on the floor, particularly in the post, and the Cougars' dynamic duo down low just might soften up the Hokies' perimeter defense enough to allow BYU a few more open looks than Virginia Tech's opponents usually get. Currently slumping from distance, the Cougars know that now would be a good time to start turning those looks into points. If the Hokies play Hartsock and Davies more straight-up, the pair should have what it takes against an average-sized VT front line to give BYU an excellent chance at a big road win.

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Time for our weekly "chart check," with a look at national rankings for the top teams in the WCC, how the Cougars stack up statistically, and what the team's updated PAP (points available percentage) looks like this week:

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Note: players must play at least 10 minutes per game to be ranked; not ranked are Josh Sharp (49.2), Nick Martineau (39.1), Damarcus Harrison (32.5) and Chris Collinsworth (0.0)

BYU's current team PAP is 50.0; 1760 of 3519 possible points.

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