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SALT LAKE CITY -- The terms around Alex Smith have changed. Not too long ago the most common moniker placed on the first-overall pick in 2005 was bust. This year Smith has done so much that he has been put in headlines with the word elite.
The 49ers quarterback is playing better this year than at any point in his career since leaving the Utes. In his two years starting at Utah he had 47 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. His first six years in the NFL he had 51 touchdowns and 53 interceptions. This year he has 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. His touchdowns numbers don't wow, but he is tied for best in the league, with Super Bowl champion Aaron Rodgers, with the four interceptions for quarterbacks with more than 200 attempts.
San Francisco legend Steve Young even said this of Smith, "And I thought he made some big plays, and I think that Alex is slowly becoming part of the reason why they're winning."
Whether he is or isn't elite doesn't matter right now, what does matter is the change this season has brought for him. There are basically three things that could be the difference between the bust and his best that he is showing. The first is that he is in a contract year. The second is the new coaching. The last is that something "clicked" this year.
Contract: Smith was re-signed this year, and a common perception was that he was simply a stop-gap for second-round draft pick Colin Kaepernick. Smith signed a one-year $4.9 million dollar contract last off-season to play for new coach Jim Harbaugh. This is the first year after his rookie contract, a six-year $49.5 million deal. That is close to $8.25 million per year. That is a $3 million pay cut. There could be motivation to get back to his old contract range. Smith has dismissed this thought.
"It's nothing I've talked about or even really thought about," Smith said Wednesday, via Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com. "It's so early. I'm focused on playing football. It's not something I want to think about in the middle of the season, to be honest with you."
The contract year may be a myth more than a reason for Smith's success. Forbes did a study on the MLB about contract years, the article has interesting stats about baseball but it all comes down to this, "'When you aggregate all of this, there isn't very much difference,' says Daniel Cohen, an executive with Bloomberg's MLB pro product unit."
Smith has made his money, enough to support his extended family for years. For anyone saying this year is different because of money, then why wasn't last year? Last year Smith played 11 games, one more than he has played this year. Here are the differences in numbers so far. He has better yards and touchdowns last year, about 400 extra yards and only one touchdown. Smith has thrown a lot less this year also, 342 to 274 passing attempts. He has six fewer interceptions this year. His numbers the year before, 2009 a non- contract year, were roughly equal to his 2010 year: 11 games, 2,350 yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
If he was playing up on a contract year his numbers last year should have been much higher either year. There isn't a great body of work, but in two years there are no big statistical differences through 10 games, except interceptions.
Coaching: Jim Harbaugh has done amazing things with the 49ers this season. He may be the coach of the year and is sitting at No. 2 in the NFC with a 9-1 record. Smith has been a big part of this season, but what has Harbaugh done for Smith?
Smith is now in his seventh offensive system, with seven offensive coordinators in seven years. Some of them haven't even been close to the last. He would have averaged 18 attempts per game, 28, 28, 33, 31 and now 27 in his seasons so far. That means this is the first year he has been asked to do less. Former coordinator's Norv Turner and Mike Martz had pass to set up the pass offenses that didn't suit Smith's strengths.
Smith needs to roll out, work from play-action and get the ball out short. That is Harbaugh's game plan. Even with all-world prospect Andrew Luck Harbaugh focused on running the ball, winning the line of scrimmage and letting his quarterback make a play only when he needed to. An underrated aspect may be the confidence that he has for Smith. It is only human to start wondering if you can when everyone says you can't. Smith has been shown his faults for years and now he has shown what he can do and Harbaugh has a role in that.
Bucky Brooks wrote this on NFL.com, "In Smith's case, the vote of confidence was needed after enduring years of mental beatdowns by former coaches Mike Singletary and Mike Nolan. It proved that Smith would start with a clean slate under Harbaugh, which allowed the QB to play with more confidence and energy from Day 1."
Harbaugh even went so far as to call Smith an "elite quarterback." In the Press Democrat, Smith responded to the claims of his coach with a maturity he may not have had early in his career. "Elite I think really means, in this league, elite is not just showing it. It is week in and week out playing at that level. That's what I define it as."
Clicked: It might be a cliché, but at the end of the day something may have just finally clicked in Smith's brain. He is still a relatively young quarterback. He turned 27 this year. There is only one other quarterback in the top 10 of passer ratings younger than him, Matthew Stafford, and he is the youngest in the top seven. He is the same age as Aaron Rodgers, even though Smith has played three extra seasons. Eli Manning is 30 and has only one extra year playing. Matt Schaub is 30 and has less experience as a starter. And last he has only played through a full season once. He has played 54 games total, which means he has played less than four seasons, including missing 2008. That puts his games played right with Aaron Rodgers, but without the seven systems.
This could finally be the time where Smith realizes what he needs to do to win. He hasn't played a full year in six years. He hasn't been counted on since he was at Utah.There are three stats that show a change in his thinking this year, rushing first downs, completion percentage and yards per attempt.
He is finally using his legs. He has 34 rushes this year for seven first downs and a touchdown on 144 yards. Last two years combined, 22 games, he ran for 111 yards on 42 carries for nine first downs and no touchdowns. This shows that he has seen what he can do for the team and use his physical tools to his advantage.
Right now he is at 62.4 percent on his attempts. His career average is 58 percent. His yards per attempt are also up to 7.21 from his career of 6.36. That means he is averaging an extra 30 yards per game on fewer attempts, according to the last three year's numbers. Combine that with his rushing ability he can account for around four extra first downs a game. He is managing the game, but he is doing it so well that no one has called him just a game manager, but he is a complete quarterback.
Conclusion: For Smith fans then hopefully he isn't just playing for a contract. It doesn't seem like he is, but he is earning one. It is probably the coaching and his maturity. If it is the coaching it is nice for Smith since Harbaugh doesn't seem to be going anywhere. His maturity will continue to grow, he won't put up great numbers, but as he understands his role and lets the game come to him he has a chance to keep the 49ers competitive for a long time.
