Estimated read time: 8-9 minutes
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With nine players returning on the offensive side of the ball, including 2010's top three ground gainers, three national award candidates on the line and a sophomore QB whose late 2010 performances hinted at a prolific future, BYU appeared poised to start the 2011 season where it left off in 2010.
Instead, the Cougar offense languishes as one of the nation's weakest, with 1-2 BYU now welcoming a 2-1 Central Florida squad that despite its soft schedule, is one of the country's top statistical teams on defense.
So, what happened, and what is likely to happen next?
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By the numbers, BYU is ranked in the bottom 20 nationally in the following categories:
118th in rushing offense
104th in total offense
111th in scoring offense
101st in pass efficiency
105th in turnover margin
115th in net punting
117th in sacks
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Rushing:
Despite the presence of three running backs, all of whom rushed for 500 yards or more in 2010, the BYU run attack is running in mud. Including yardage lost on sacks, BYU is averaging a paltry 1.9 yards per carry, and only 48.3 rush yards per game.
On first down, BYU averages 2.3 yards per carry, with the lack of productivity on that down ultimately affecting the Cougars' third down, down-and-distance game plan.
In 2010, when BYU averaged 4.2 yards per carry, and 168.1 rush yards per game, BYU's average distance-to-gain on third downs was 6.1 yards. Through three games this season, that number is up to 7.5
On 44 third down attempts, BYU has passed on 38 of them. Even on 3rd-and-3 or shorter, BYU has gone away from the run, passing on eight of ten such third down attempts.
The pass/run balance on third down is totally out of sync. In 2010, BYU passed on 65% of third downs; in 2011, that early-season number is 86%--that's a sizable gap to close. Interestingly, while BYU's success on passing third downs is pacing ahead of last season, converting only two of six rushing third downs lags behind 2010's 64% success rate.
Bronco Mendenhall says the "design" of the run plan has to be examined, in addition to the personnel being deployed within that game plan. After the 54-10 loss to Utah, RB Bryan Kariya told us that he is being used differently this season. In 2010, Kariya averaged 12.2 touches per game, between catches and carries. In 2011, as a senior, he is averaging 5.3 touches per contest (Kariya was feeling ill during the first half at Texas).
In 2010, Kariya and leading ground-gainer J.J. DiLuigi were the go-to-guys on third down, accounting for 40% of BYU's conversions, with 27 of their 37 chain-movers coming on rush attempts. In 2011, that duo has accounted for only three of BYU's 17 third down conversions (18%), with only a single third down rushing conversion between them.
Juice Quezada has started the 2011 season sluggishly, following a 2010 campaign in which he averaged 5.1 yards per carry with a three-game total of 28 yards on only 14 carries. A pre-season ankle injury he suffered has evidently done more physical damage than he let on, with his current long run at only six yards.
DiLuigi remains the workhorse, but his body is not built for heavy plowing. His 43 touches (33 rushes, 10 receptions) lead the team, but at 3.8 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per reception, his senior season numbers pale in comparison to his junior year productivity (5.2 yards per rush, 9.8 yards per catch).
Certainly the loss of fullback Iona Pritchard before the season and an ankle injury to FB Zed Mendenhall has had an impact on some personnel groupings, but the bottom line remains that 2010's cast of backs is back in 2011, and the level of underachievement in the run game remains a mystery.
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Total offense:
BYU's offensive numbers get a bit of a boost from a passing game, that while not by any means prolific, is ranked 43rd nationally at 253.3 yards per game.
Yards, however, are not points, and BYU's 5.45 plays per point ratio is almost half of BYU's PPP efficiency in 2010 (2.78 plays/point). On Saturday versus Utah, the Utes had a ridiculously low PPP of 1.3; BYU's was 7.8.
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Scoring offense:
After entering the season having set a Bronco Mendenhall-era record for scoring in consecutive quarters (22 and counting after the 2010 New Mexico Bowl), BYU has played 12 quarters, and has scored in only half of them, and more than seven points in only one of them (the fourth quarter at Ole Miss).
BYU has three offensive touchdowns in three games--all TD passes from Jake Heaps to Ross Apo. You have to go back to 1974 to find a comparable lack of season-opening offensive productivity (13, 6 and 7 points in the first three games).
BYU has had eight blue zone opportunities in 2011, and has converted on only five, with touchdowns on only two occasions. BYU had only six blue zone failures all of last season (not among BYU's most productive seasons), and the Cougars have half that number through three games.
BYU has attempted field goals of 30, 31, 32 and 33 yards--that's a lot of settling, when in a position to find the end zone.
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Pass Efficiency:
Heaps' pass efficiency rating of 107.6 trails his 2010 rating of 116.2. His completion percentage is marginally higher than last season (57.9% to 57.2%), but with more interceptions than touchdowns, his yardage boost over 2010 (240.7 ypg to 178.2) is statistically empty.
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Turnover Margin:
For a team that entered the Utah game without a single fumble lost, BYU more than made up for it with a school record-tying six fumbles given away on Saturday night. Adding Heaps' four interceptions gives BYU 10 giveaways to an otherwise respectable six takeaways through three games.
Under Bronco Mendenhall, BYU is a practically iron-clad 32-3 when winning the turnover battle, and a losing team (15-17) when it is minus in the margin. A positive turnover margin is important for every team, but for Bronco's teams, it's almost everything.
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Net Punting:
Despite a renewed emphasis on special teams, the punt unit has done very little to assist BYU in gaining advantageous field position. Riley Stephenson had his best game of the season v. Utah (48.7 yd avg, career-long 65-yarder), but the Cougars are allowing 21.8 yards per punt return, negating any distance benefits with poor coverage.
BYU has a modest game-to-game statistical goal for net punting, and it has yet to be reached in three games.
Punt cover is one of the four special teams units with numerical objectives, and the objective of all is field position. Like turnover margin, average starting field position has been a consistent indicator of success or failure under Bronco Mendenhall.
BYU's lone win this season came with the Cougars possessing the ASFP advantage, and in both losses BYU was on the minus end of that margin.
Under Bronco Mendenhall, BYU is 42-6 when winning the ASFP battle, but has a losing record (12-14) when the opponent holds the advantage.
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Sacks:
While Kyle Van Noy's fumble-causing strip of the QB at Ole Miss was not recorded as a sack, it is the only time this season that a BYU defender has blown up a quarterback's plans in the backfield.
Running QBs and moving pockets can affect a pass rusher's effectiveness (and UCF's Jeff Godfrey will be on the move v. BYU), but it is somewhat surprising that the Cougars' deep crew of defenders has yet to account for a QB takedown. BYU recorded 24 sacks in 2010, from every part of the field, with defensive linemen, linebackers, corners and safeties all getting to the QB.
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Big picture:
Last week's loss to Utah was BYU at its sloppiest and least resilient, yet felt more like a collective mental meltdown than a demonstration of a team's innate inability to compete physically and tactically, week in and week out.
Yes, BYU must find a way to run the ball--absolutely must find a way to produce on the ground.
Yes, BYU needs to be tougher, individually and as a group.
Yes, blue zone schemes must be better thought out and executed.
And yes, ball security remains a necessity.
But, I believe that the BYU team we saw last Saturday is not ultimately who this team is, or will be. The players are too good and the coaches too dedicated to allow the kind of capitulation (Steve Young's word usage was spot-on) we witnessed last weekend to repeat itself.
Central Florida will test that belief. It's true that a team that just lost at Florida International would not normally inspire the kind of gravitas that has suddenly been lent to Friday night's encounter. But, this week's game isn't just about scheming to stop a mobile QB or confront an athletic defense, it's about proudly stating a team's identity.
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Bronco Mendenhall expects a lot from himself and his players. He views himself not only as a football coach, but a standard-bearer--for an ideal, a vision and an institution. Likewise, his players are portrayed as not merely occupying a position on the field, but positions of responsibility that stretch far beyond the football field.
There is a lot of pressure on these guys, now more than ever in the era of independence and under the glare of the national media spotlight.
At times like these, the banner may feel like a bit of a burden, a burden that can be lightened by playing very well a game--the game that ultimately brought each one of them to the place they are today.
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