Turning Point?

So, just how big is Saturday's game with San Diego State? It could mean the difference between a non-losing regular season and staying home for the holidays.

Bronco Mendenhall is the only BYU coach to take the Cougars to the postseason in his first five seasons, but a home loss to the Aztecs will stand BYU on the verge of the postseason precipice.

At 1-5, BYU would need wins in five of its final six games to become bowl eligible. That would mean beating either TCU or Utah on the road, and winning remaining games with Wyoming, UNLV, CSU and New Mexico (only the Rams game is away from home).

Some might say that a 1-4 team has no business thinking about bowl games, and that's usually true, but consider that BYU's schedule turns around considerably after the upcoming SDSU and TCU games. Indeed, the current combined record of BYU's first seven opponents is 25-8. The current combined record of Wyoming, UNLV, CSU and New Mexico is 4-16.

Furthermore, the Cowboys, Rams and Lobos are actually ranked worse than BYU in scoring offense right now. The Cougars are 114th at 15.2 points per game; Wyoming is 115th (15.0), New Mexico is 117th (12.2), and CSU is 119th (11.0). UNLV is 88th, at 21.8 points per game. BYU could expect to be in or win games eight through 11 on its schedule.

If BYU could scratch out a home win over San Diego State, it's not unreasonable to think that the Cougars could play the final month of the season with a shot at bowl eligibility. If BYU falls at home to the Aztecs, a loss at TCU is all but inevitable, meaning 1-6 BYU would need to win out to play in the postseason.

Even if the Cougars were to beat the four lesser teams named above (no gimme, by any means), BYU would still need to win at Utah to break even on the season, and unless the Utes completely and illogically fall apart between now and then, no one is taking that bet.

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I have no doubt that the BYU defense will play in an inspired fashion under new coordinator Bronco Mendenhall on Saturday. The spirit will be willing, but is the flesh too weak?

BYU has been blistered by key defensive injuries, including those to 60% of BYU's starting front five (three down linemen, and two outside linebackers). SLB Jordan Pendleton (2-6 weeks), NT Romney Fuga (season) and WLB Jameson Frazier (3-4 weeks) are all out, while both starting safeties have been hampered by health issues. FS Steven Thomas (concussion) may not play again this season, while Kat Andrew Rich (contusions/stingers, etc.) is a weekly question mark.

BYU's depth will be sorely tested as Mendenhall "wrings the towel" with his defense in the final seven weeks of the regular season.

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Overlooked in all the attention being paid to the BYU defense is the fact that the offense needs to "man up." Five games into a season is long enough to expect young players to have gained experience, and for playmakers to have been identified.

Despite considerable personnel losses, there remains talent in the offensive unit, and successful schemes from past seasons should not have been rendered entirely obsolete.

Considering the difficulty of BYU's schedule (third-toughest, according to Jeff Sagarin), the Cougars' rankings (both offensively and defensively) will almost certainly improve over coming weeks, but the fact remains that BYU has gone from one of the most prolific attacks in college football over the last five seasons, to one of the worst, practically overnight. That should not happen.

BYU's 31-16 loss at Utah State prompted a coaching staff upheaval on the defensive side of the ball. Without changes in approach, execution and outcome on offense, similar accountability will likely be required.

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Catch up with former BYU wide receiver Ben Cahoon in my weekly Deseret News column.

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Follow me on Twitter; twitter.com/gregwrubell.

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