A look at the scenarios for Utah heading into Pac-12 Tournament


Save Story
Leer en español

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.

SALT LAKE CITY — In basketball, one game generally doesn’t have a big impact on the season; however, with the logjam of teams vying for a bye in the Pac-12 Tournament next week, one game has the makings for an assortment of outcomes.

Think of it as a choose-your-own-adventure scenario, Pac-12 style.

Utah is currently one of four teams tied for third place in the Pac-12, and depending on whether Utah wins or loses Saturday against region rival Colorado determines whether the Utes finish anywhere between the No. 3 seed and the No. 6 seed. The following is a look at where Utah can end up.

Win and you’re in

It’s simple for the Utes: take care of business at home and there is nothing to worry about as they sit comfortably in the No. 3 spot and a first-round bye in the conference tournament. Even if Stanford, UCLA and Washington each get a win on Saturday, Utah will claim the No. 3 seed.

In that scenario, all four teams would end the regular season with an 11-7 conference record, tied for third place. Conference seeding rules state that in the instance where multiple teams tie, the seeding is based on the “results (won-lost percentage) of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams.”

Utah owns the best record in the head-to-head competition, with a 4-1 record against the group, making them the outright No. 3 seed. UCLA and Stanford would be tied at 3-2, resulting in a two-team tie where the head-to-head competition between the two teams becomes the deciding factor. In this case, Stanford and UCLA split wins, so the record against the top team in the conference — Arizona — settles the tiebreaker.

UCLA beat Arizona in its only matchup, while Stanford lost both its contests against the Wildcats, making UCLA the No. 4 seed and claiming the last bye in the tournament. Stanford comes in at No. 5 and Washington, who finished 0-5 against the group, finishes at No. 6.

Should Utah and UCLA both win and Stanford and Washington lose, UCLA claims the tiebreaker with Utah as the two split games and UCLA had a better record against Arizona, the top team in the conference. UCLA would claim the 3 seed and Utah the 4 seed.

Lose and the waters get murky

Obviously, a loss is not the option Utah is hoping for, but the scenarios must be drawn out because Colorado, who beat Utah 67-55 earlier in the season, could play spoiler on senior night.

There are three scenarios where Utah can still claim a conference tournament bye even if they lose. The most likely, based on projections from KenPom and ESPN, is that Washington wins and Stanford and UCLA lose. Washington would claim the No. 3 seed with an 11-7 record. Utah, who would be tied with Stanford and UCLA, claims the No. 4 seed by having the best collective record. UCLA would claim the No. 5 seed and Stanford the No. 6 seed.

The other two scenarios where Utah can claim the No. 4 seed involves UCLA and Washington losing and Stanford winning, or Stanford and Washington losing and UCLA winning. Basically, if Washington loses and either one of the other teams lose, Utah claims a No. 4 seed.

Only one scenario allows Utah to be the No. 5 seed and that’s where UCLA and Washington win, while Stanford claims the loss. UCLA would be the No. 3 seed and Washington the No. 4 seed.

There are also two worst-case scenarios for Utah where they fall all the way to the No. 6 seed. The first is simple: all three teams win their game this weekend, leaving Utah as the bottom team. Stanford would be the No. 3 seed, UCLA the No. 4 seed and Washington the No. 5 seed.

The final scenario is that Stanford and Washington win and UCLA lose. Utah and UCLA would be tied in their head-to-head record, each splitting home matchups, leaving UCLA to claim the No. 5 seed due to its better record against Arizona. Stanford would be the No. 3 seed, Washington the No. 4 seed, UCLA the No. 5 seed and Utah the No. 6 seed.

Utah will tipoff against Colorado Saturday at 5 p.m. at the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City. The game will be broadcast on the Pac-12 Networks.

Most recent Sports stories

Related topics

SportsUtah Utes
Josh is the Sports Director for KSL.com and beat writer covering University of Utah athletics — primarily football, men’s and women's basketball and gymnastics. He is also an Associated Press Top 25 voter for college football.

ARE YOU GAME?

From first downs to buzzer beaters, get KSL.com’s top sports stories delivered to your inbox weekly.
By subscribing, you acknowledge and agree to KSL.com's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

KSL Weather Forecast