SALT LAKE CITY — Utah football is expected to take a step back this season, or at least that’s what several national publications believe. With so much turnover in starting talent, Utah is expected to naturally regress — temporarily — and be closer to a .500 team.

“Each time I ponder what lies ahead for the Utes this season, I return to two words: no way,” writes Jon Wilner of The Mercury News. “No way will the Utes, a power running team that lost four starting offensive linemen, execute as consistently as they have. No way will one of the steadiest programs in the conference maintain the level of success it achieved the past three years.”

ESPN’s football power index has Utah as the projected favorite in only three — THREE! — games this season, meaning Utah would have to steal more games than expected to even be bowl eligible. The FPI model projects Utah to finish with a 4.7-7.3 record — potentially making it the worst record since joining the Pac-12.

But SBNation’s Bill Connelly has a slightly different take, saying Utah has the right formula in place to win, particularly under head coach Kyle Whittingham, but that the level of competition in the Pac-12 has increased. That makes it harder to stay a consistent overachiever, but not impossible. Utah's turnover in starting talent could cloud a rosy season outlook or the program could continue to trend upward in a statistical anomaly of sorts.

“At this point, Utah is rolling a loaded dice,” Connelly writes. “Chances are the Utes will get the roll they need more often than not. But this could be a stark test of the Whitt adjustment.”

The "Whitt adjustment," according to Connelly’s statistical analysis, says Utah has over-exceeded win expectations by an average of 0.49 games per season the last three seasons. His statistical model currently has Utah favored — using win probability — in seven games, but only winning six. Add in the “Whitt adjustment” and Utah is optimistically a 7-5 program.

That’s certainly not a doomsday prediction considering Utah’s loss of talent to the NFL, but can Utah exceed expectations?

Pac-12 media obviously saw something in Utah before fall camp, picking the Utes to finish second in the South behind conference-favorite USC. Utah obviously has the talent to compete, but the schedule, which features arguably four of the best quarterbacks in the country, could be too much for the Utes to handle.

Let’s jump into the numbers to see what Utah could do to have a successful 2017 campaign.

Offense

Coming into the 2017 season, there are multiple questions relating to the offensive side of the ball — as there seems to be prior to many of Utah’s seasons, particularly with an almost yearly tradition of turnover at offensive coordinator position.

Using Connelly’s numbers, S&P+, Utah ranked 57th in the country offensively in 2016, with only Arizona, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA less efficient in the Pac-12. Those same teams struggled to put points on the board. In Utah’s case, the team averaged only 29.8 points per game last season. Comparatively, Washington, which was ranked eighth nationally, managed 41.8 points per game.

While the run game under Joe Williams was strong, Utah struggled to have much success in the passing game last season. Quarterback Troy Williams threw for 2,757 yards, which was more than his predecessor, Travis Wilson, the season before, but not as successful in terms of completed passes.

Williams’ passing success rate, according to Connelly, of 37.4 percent ranked Utah 99th in the country. Wilson, who also saw a low passing success rate, had a 40.8 percent rate, but ranked the team 60th in the country. Although impossible to predict, Utah’s new starter, Tyler Huntley, could improve the passing success rate, particularly with an improved quarterback coach and better receiving targets.

Sophomore Tyler Huntley named Utah's starting QB, beating out Williams

Sophomore Tyler Huntley has been named the University of Utah’s starting quarterback.

While Utah may not eclipse the 4,000-yard passing mark — although it's certainly a possibility — offensive coordinator Troy Taylor is known for getting the most out of his quarterbacks and turning them into passing juggernauts. Taylor has experience coaching up quarterbacks, maximizing offenses and scoring as many points possible. Should he be able to do that at Utah, the offense will no doubt raise Utah’s chances of overachieving this season, which may be the biggest predictor of its success.

The receiving unit, which continues to improve each season with better recruits, has no reason to regress coming into 2017. If anything, the experience returning and Utah’s new passing attack make it, at worst, marginally better. Utah welcomes former Oregon receiver Darren Carrington II to its starting unit, which instantly adds speed, size and experience to Utah’s passing game and one of the best players on offense.

At Oregon, in a relatively down year offensively for the program, Carrington managed 606 yards and five touchdowns, with a 62.3 percent catch rate and 52.6 percent success rate, according to Connelly.

Utah brings back a much-improved Raelon Singleton, who had a 48.2 percent catch rate and 42.9 percent success rate; Demari Simpkins, who had a 63.3 percent catch rate and 50.0 percent success rate; and Siaosi Wilson, who had a 60.0 percent catch rate and 36.0 percent success rate. Each looks to have a better season, particularly under a new pass-heavy offensive scheme, which is great news for Utah in terms of progress.

However, increased passes don’t necessarily translate to successful catches and an improved offense. If Utah wants to take a step forward again in 2017, the offense has to get more production than in seasons past. By all accounts, Utah has made progress in fall camp on offense and has the makings to be a much-improved, diverse team.

Huntley needs to be effectively executing the offense, Zack Moss and his backup running backs need to approach the 1,000-yard mark again, receivers need to make plays to get open and pick up big yards and points, and the offensive line needs to be the anchor of the team. Although a tall task, Utah has the makings to accomplish this and more in a very real sense. If it's able to do all of that, it could be a special year for the Utes.

Defense

Are there any doubts a Whittingham-led defense can continue to get results? Year after year, Whittingham’s teams continue to stifle opposing offenses, regardless of the name on the back of the jersey. This year looks to be no different other than questions about an inexperienced secondary unit led by returning strong safety Chase Hansen.

Although Hansen is the lone returner in the secondary, Whittingham and his coaching staff recruited several talented backs to fill immediate needs, including freshman Jaylon Johnson, who is expected to start at corner. Add playmaker Julian Blackmon at corner and Corrion Ballard at free safety and Utah has a strong complement of players ready to attack the balls thrown its way.

Whittingham has already gone on the record to say the secondary could be one of his best secondary groups ever, but that prediction was based on potential and not actual game play. However, Utah has a knack for coaching up defensive players and maximizing potential, which bodes well for a talented secondary.

While not a full season, Utah’s secondary has plenty of time in non-conference play to work out some kinks and get into a rhythm, if that hasn’t already been discovered in fall camp. This is not to say the secondary will be perfect — it won't — but there's reason to believe Utah didn't take as big of a hit as previously thought.

Despite sending several players to the NFL, Utah was not as aggressive at forcing incomplete passes as the year before, according to Connelly’s PD-to-INC measure, which takes into account the percentage of passes that end in an incomplete, pass deflection or interception. In 2016, Utah forced 33.3 percent of all opponent passes into an incomplete, which ranked 58th nationally. The year before, Utah forced 38.9 percent of incomplete passes, which ranked 17th nationally.

Utah has an opportunity to be more aggressive and improve its PD-to-INC percentage, but that’s not always easy to do and can often be a double-edged sword. Too much aggressiveness could lead to being burned by the cadre of talented receivers in the Pac-12 ready to make a mockery of the secondary.

Utah will certainly miss the support of safety Marcus Williams, who accounted for 8.4 percent of all team tackles, five interceptions, three pass breakups and two forced fumbles in the backfield. But the Utes have tons of room to grow as a secondary unit. Experience is a hard thing to measure, but Utah’s incoming secondary unit should be roughly on par with last year’s secondary.

Add to that an improved linebacker corps and the always stout defensive line and Utah should manage well on defense. Linebacker Kavika Luafatasaga was fifth best in percentage of team tackles at 6.7 percent last season, but struggled to understand the defensive concepts until late in the season. With a complete understanding of the defense, Luafatasaga is expected to emerge as a strong presence in the second line of defense, especially paired with Sunia Tauteoli and the newfound depth at the position.

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