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SALT LAKE CITY — College football’s National Signing Day is Wednesday, a day when prep players will finally choose which schools they'll attend to further their academic and athletic careers. While recruiting is an imperfect science, rankings have proven to be a strong indicator of a team’s future success.
Both BYU and Utah are waiting on the final decisions of several recruits to put the finishing touches on their 2017 recruiting classes.
The Cougars are waiting on the decision of four-star Timpview High School safety Chaz Ah You, who appears to have narrowed his potential suitors to BYU and Washington. Then there's Alden Tofa, a three-star defensive end from West Jordan High, who seems to be deciding: BYU or Utah?
For the Utes, they await the decision of five-star defensive tackle Jay Tufele (Bingham) who is the state’s top recruit. The Utes are also hoping to hold onto the commitment of Jaylon Johnson out of Fresno, California. Johnson committed to Utah in October but has since taken official visits to several other high-profile colleges. Both are considered among the top 100 recruits in the country.
By most accounts, BYU currently has the country’s 72nd best recruiting class, while Utah features the 52nd best class in the nation. As recruits make their final commitments, both the Cougars and the Utes should see their rankings climb before Wednesday.
On the field, there has been a recent swing in momentum between the two schools with Utah winning six straight and 11 of 14 overall over the Cougars. The move to the Pac-12 has given Utah access to bigger bowl games, along with a significantly larger budget. Meanwhile, the money has contributed to better facilities and an ability to retain, and improve, coaching talent.
BYU has tried to keep pace with the Utes, as an independent, signing a television deal with ESPN, all the while making improvements to their facilities.
But with the gap growing on the field, not to mention financially, how do the Utes and Cougars stack up against one another in recruiting?
I compared the recruiting rankings from rivals.com, between the schools, starting from 2004. That season, the Utes went undefeated and won the Fiesta Bowl, the first non-automatic qualifying team to make and win a BCS bowl game. Though the Utes had won their two previous matchups against BYU, that season signaled a major departure for the two teams. The Utes would go on to win another BCS game in 2009 before being invited to join the Pac-12.
I graphed both BYU’s and Utah’s recruiting classes based off of their ranks, according to Rivals, from 2004 through 2017. Understand that this season’s final class rankings are incomplete. Here’s what I found:
In '04, BYU brought in the country’s 48th best-recruiting class. Utah’s class that same year ranked 60th. As previously mentioned, BYU’s 2017 class is currently ranked 72nd, while Utah comes in ranked 52. Independently, these years could be considered one-offs, as the recruiting classes can vary widely season to season. However, a look at the trend lines shows a somewhat consistent story developing between the two schools over the past 14 years.
In these graphs, the lower the ranking, the better the classes are. Since '04, BYU has had three top-50 recruiting classes, with their best class coming in 2010, when BYU ranked 42nd. Since moving to independence, BYU has hovered between the 66th and 71st ranking, with a notable improvement last season, jumping to the 50th best class in the nation. If the Cougars can land Tofa and Ah You by Wednesday, their class should climb considerably from their current spot at 72.
Early in these graphs, it was clear BYU had a decided recruiting edge over the Utes. Between '04 and '08, the Utes had a top-60 class just once. However, the Utes had a clear spike in recruiting beginning in '09 after winning the Sugar Bowl over Alabama, then continuing through their invitation to the Pac-12, where Utah had a string of classes ranked between 46th at the worst, and 29th at the best.
Meanwhile, BYU appeared to have lost ground on Utah, varying between the 42nd and 71st best classes in the country.
Recently, the Cougars have hovered between 70 and 50 while the Utes danced between 67 and 34.
Coincidentally, looking at the trend lines for both schools, they begin the rankings right around the 60th-ranked classes in the country. BYU’s ranking trends in the wrong direction, recently finishing around 64. Utah climbs from the 60th ranking to about 40th currently.
Now, it’s important to understand how class rankings work for Rivals. The website uses a point system to determine their rankings, weighing a team’s top 20 commits, then adding bonus points based on national rankings. It’s an accurate system but punishes teams with smaller recruiting classes while rewarding teams with higher numbers of total recruits.
For example, Stanford currently has the 18th-ranked recruiting class in the nation, despite having three five-star recruits and six four-star recruits. If you were to rank teams based on the average star ranking of each prospect, Stanford’s 3.92 average would rank third in the country, behind only Ohio State and Alabama.
Since most classes fill all of their available scholarships, it may be more valuable to examine these classes ranked off of their average star rankings, rather than each year’s potentially arbitrary number of available scholarships.
These are the graphs looking at BYU’s and Utah’s average star rankings since 2004:
BYU’s star ranking ranges between 2.08 at their lowest and 2.87 at their highest, but the Cougars appear to be trending in the right direction, climbing from an average of roughly 2.4 in '04 to just under 2.6 as of this season.
Utah’s range varies between 2.24 in 2004, their lowest ranking since winning the Fiesta Bowl, to 3.13 this season, which will likely climb with a few late additions. Utah’s trend line shows a noticeable growth, beginning at 2.4 in '04 and climbing to 3.0 in 2017.
Recruiting rankings aren’t a perfect indicator of a team’s future, as they can’t account for a player’s role for a specific team, coaching changes, injuries or a player’s desire to transfer out of a program. However, there is a strong correlation between the top recruiting classes in the nation and the top teams in college football.
With Utah’s improvement on the recruiting trail, both in class ranking and average star ranking, it’s no surprise to see the Utes become a team that perennially finds itself ranked among the top 25 teams in the country.
However, while BYU appears to be trending in the right direction, remaining mostly level in overall class rankings and improving slightly in star ranking, the Cougars still aren’t keeping pace with the rival Utes.
No doubt Kalani Sitake has inspired excitement surrounding the BYU program among loyal fans, all the while sending out good vibes down the recruiting trail, but what will be key in improving the on-the-field product, going forward, is ensuring that good guys commit.
