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SALT LAKE CITY — As one of a select few teams already bowl eligible following a 19-14 victory over Oregon State Saturday, Utah is enjoying another successful season in the Pac-12.
However, the remaining five games of the season will likely test whether Utah is worthy of its ranking in the national polls or a team benefitting from a relatively soft start to its schedule.
To date, Utah’s best wins have come against USC, a team that started out the season 1-3 before rebounding and dominating opponents, and BYU, a team that was a successful 2-point conversion away from altering Utah’s season.
Averaging the ratings from ESPN’s Football Power Index, Brian Fremeau’s Fremeau Efficiency Index, Bill Connelly’s S&P+ and Sagarin as of this writing, USC comes in at No. 21.25 and BYU at No. 31.25, or Utah’s second and fifth hardest games on this year’s schedule. Besides its loss to Cal (49.25), Utah’s remaining three FBS games were the three easiest games on the schedule: Arizona (69.25), Oregon State (80.75) and San Jose State (122.25).
The average of Utah’s first six games of the season, excluding FCS opponent Southern Utah, is a ranking of 62.33. If factoring San Jose State out of the equation, which is simply just dropping the worst FBS team on the schedule for interest’s sake, Utah’s average opponent jumps up to a ranking of 50.35. However, in its remaining five games, Utah’s average opponent is ranked 32.3 — a significant jump in talent.
That jump in talent in its five remaining games gives Utah the fourth hardest remaining strength of schedule, according to FPI. In total, Utah’s strength of schedule ranks No. 20. In the final five games of the season, FPI has Utah as the favorite to win in two games: at UCLA (26.1 percent), Washington (17.8 percent), at Arizona State (50.6 percent), Oregon (66.7 percent) and at Colorado (21.6 percent).
- 2015:
- Total: 20-10 /14-16
Although hard to predict a game’s outcome simply based on being a favored team, ESPN’s FPI has been the most accurate in predicting Utah’s probability of winning, with a 6-1 record. Brian Fremeau’s FEI is 4-2 in predicting Utah’s probability of winning. This is not to say that Utah can’t “steal” games away, but the odds of doing so are against them.
Since joining the Pac-12, the latter half of Utah’s schedule has consistently been the hardest for Utah to win games. Utah is 20-10 in its first six games of the season and 14-16 in the second six games of the season. In the last two “successful” seasons, in which Utah made it to a bowl game, Utah finished the second half of its season with a 3-3 record each year.
The reason for the second-half slump is hard to pinpoint and situational. Only Utah can really say why they have had a harder time in the second half of the season. It’s not that Utah was the underdog in each of its last games; it’s that the team hasn’t performed as well in the second half of the season. Injuries play a factor, especially this season, but most teams have to deal with injuries, too.
All of Utah’s goals — division champs, Pac-12 championship, a Rose Bowl appearance and a shot at the College Football Playoffs, albeit slim — are all still in play, but Utah would have to overcome mounting injuries and second-half precedence to keep the goals alive.
“We’re trying to find a win each week,” head coach Kyle Whittingham said. “And if we can come away with a win each week, that’s all that matters.”
Utah’s hardest test comes in less than two weeks when Washington, a top-five program and Pac-12 favorite, comes to Rice-Eccles Stadium. The Huskies feature one of the most explosive offenses in the Pac-12 and are likely the conference’s only hope of returning to the College Football Playoffs.
But first, another road test against Utah’s fourth-hardest opponent in UCLA, according to the above average of the four ratings. It’s also an important game in determining the pecking order in the Pac-12 South Division. The Bruins may be without starting quarterback Josh Rosen, which could add some uncertainty to the game.
Although not a predictor of its final few games, how Utah fares against UCLA will be a strong indicator of how the remainder of the season could turn out. Win, and the South remains in play; lose, and many of the goals start fading.
