Estimated read time: 5-6 minutes
This archived news story is available only for your personal, non-commercial use. Information in the story may be outdated or superseded by additional information. Reading or replaying the story in its archived form does not constitute a republication of the story.
PROVO — Despite holding a lead for the majority of the game against the Bruins, the Cougars did not come out on top, falling 24-23.
Many question the call to run on the third and 5 on the UCLA 16-yard line. The Cougars only got 2 yards and had to settle for a field goal, and only a six point lead. UCLA and its two-headed monster at running back tore apart the BYU defense for 71 rushing yards and a touchdown on the following drive. If the Cougars hadn't been so conservative on third and 5 we might be talking a different result today.
The Wolverines were dominant in their 28-7 victory over the UNLV rebels. The Wolverines have improved each week this season and look to be a power on the rise. Jim Harbaugh started out slow against the Utes but is finding his way to guide his team to victories.
Here are the key stats that need to be monitored heading into BYU vs. Michigan:
Michigan is averaging 239.5 rushing yards/game last two weeks
After only 76 rushing yards against the Utes, the Wolverines have figured out how to run the ball effectively. The Wolverines rushed for 225 against Oregon State and 254 against UNLV. Each week had different leading rushers, De'Veon Smith against the Beavers with 23 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns, and Ty Isaac with eight carries for 114 yards and a touchdown. Smith is the lead back, but Isaac is a proven backup.
Harbaugh had to be excited to see Paul Perkins and the Bruins run all over the Cougars in Week 3. The Cougars allowed 296 rushing yards to the Bruins in Week 3. A lot of the reason the Bruins' running attack was so dominant could be attributed to the loss of nose guard Travis Tuiloma. Perkins and Nate Starks saw most of their runs up the gut of the BYU defense. Tuiloma's absence is significant and could prove costly against the Wolverines.
Adam Hine is the leading running back in 3 straight games
Hine would be the leading rusher in all three games if not for Taysom Hill's 72 yards rushing against the Cornhuskers. Hine has improved drastically each game: 37 yards vs. Nebraska, 93 vs. Boise State and 149 vs. UCLA. Hine has solidified himself as the lead back for the Cougars. Algernon Brown, who was thought going into season the best candidate for the bell cow role, has only 23 yards rushing this season and registered a DNP against the Bruins with an apparent knee injury. Nate Carter, a walk-on who earned a scholarship during training camp, has only 13 rushing yards in three games. Hine needs to continue his impressive play for the BYU run game to have any relevance.
With all that said, the Cougars will face a Wolverine run defense ranked 14th in the country. The Wolverines held Utes running back Devontae Booker to just 69 yards rushing in Week 1. They held the Oregon State running backs to just 59 total rushing yards in Week 2 (this is significant since the Beavers just put up 303 rushing yards against San Jose State). The Wolverines will look to completely shut down the BYU running game.
Michigan's .231 (14th) and BYU's .257 (21st) 3rd down conversion percentage defenses
Both the Cougars and Wolverines are great at getting off the field after third down. The Wolverines held the Beavers to 1-11 on third-down conversions. The Cougars held the Bruins to 1-9 on third-down conversions. Both teams will need to force each other into third-and-long situations if they are to have success defensively.
The Wolverines may have an easier time forcing the Cougars off the field after third down than vice versa. The Wolverines are a top 50 team in third-down conversions, whereas the Cougars are a bottom 50 team. Second down will prove to be the most important down for the two teams come Saturday.
BYU, Kai Nacua lead FBS in interceptions
BYU is tied for first with seven interceptions and Nacua leads all players with four interceptions. Remember, he was suspended for the first game of the season. Harvey Langi had two interceptions at UCLA and Micah Hannemann had an incredible interception at Nebraska. BYU had a total of 14 interceptions in 2014. It is on pace to finish the 2015 season with 30 interceptions. That kind of productivity is unheard of and shouldn't be expected this season, but now the expectations for the BYU secondary are elevated.
The BYU defense is licking its chops knowing it will face Jake Rudock in Week 4. Rudock has been less than stellar in his senior season at the Michigan helm. Rudock, in his first three games, is only averaging 194 passing yards/game. He's also thrown five interceptions. Smith and Isaac will need to have big games if Rudock is to have any success through the air.
BYU punting only averaging 36 yards per punt
The Cougar punting game has not been doing well. Jonny Linehan has punted 17 times for an average of 42.6 yards, but that number goes down after adding in two touchbacks. Against Nebraska, Linehan had a punt of 77 yards and hasn't had one over 50 since. Linehan was replaced after four punts by backup punter Rhett Almond. Almond's only punt of the game went 48 yards. I don't normally focus on punting, but it seems important given the Wolverines' third-down conversion defense is fantastic (see above).
The other part of the punting is the punt coverage. The Cougars rank 116th in FBS in punt return defense. Opposing punt returners are averaging a little over 21 yards/ punt return. That's punting a ball inside the 10-yard line and having it returned to the 30. The Cougars will need to crack down on punt coverage against the Wolverines, who average 9.5 yards/punt return. Nathan Harker is a sports writing intern currently enrolled at Brigham Young University majoring in broadcast journalism. Nathan can be reached at nathan.harker32@gmail.com or via Twitter @nharker3207.
