Speculation abounds for this year's Nobel Literature Prize

It's a guessing game every year and this year is no different: the announcement on Thursday of the 2006 Nobel Literature Prize has Stockholm's literary circles abuzz, with Philip Roth, Amos Oz, and Adonis tipped as possible favourites.

In line with tradition, the Swedish Academy which awards the prestigious prize is keeping mum.

"It would appear that we are watertight now. In the past the Academy leaked like a sieve," its permanent secretary Horace Engdahl said.

No list of candidates ever leaves the Academy's walls, and its members, who are sworn to secrecy, are urged to use codenames when discussing potential Nobel laureates in cafes or restaurants.

Last year, Academy members thus spoke of Harry Potter when they wanted to refer to Harold Pinter, the British playwright who took the honours.

But everyone who is anyone in Stockholm's literary scene has a list of names of possible winners.

"The only thing that has been very clear, explicitly, is that witness literature is well-placed," Jonas Axelsson, an editor at Bonnier, one of Sweden's biggest publishing houses, told AFP.

"We have often thought that writers coming from war zones could be honoured," he said, adding that in such case, Israeli author "Amoz Oz would be very appropriate."

Engdahl is known to be fond of "literature that has witnessed reality", having organized a symposium on the subject in 2001 to mark the centenary of the first Nobel prizes.

And the 2002 and 2003 literature prizes went to writers in that genre, Hungary's Imre Kertesz and J.M. Coetzee of South Africa.

For Jonas Axelsson, other possible winners are Czech author Milan Kundera and Philip Roth of the United States, who has been rumoured to be in the running for years.

In order to win the prize, a laureate must have already appeared on the Academy's short list, Axelsson explained.

"I am sure that these two writers have been on the list," he said.

But for Stephen Farran-Lee, senior editor at Norstedts publishing house, novelist Joyce Carol Oates is "the American author who is best placed", though he tips Syrian poet Adonis, the pseudonym for Ali Ahmad Said Esber, and Orhan Pamuk of Turkey as most likely winners.

However, he would also like to see Japan's Haruki Murakami take the top honour.

"The Academy's choices have become less predictable over the years ... In the 1980s we had the feeling that they had an agenda ... (awarding the prize) by continent, genre, gender ... but now you never know what's going to happen," Farran-Lee said.

"They managed to surprise the entire world last year with (British playwright Harold) Pinter, I'm sure they could surprise us again," he said.

Among other names circulating are Peru's Mario Vargas Llosa, Swedish poet Tomas Transtroemer and French novelist J.-M. G. Le Clezio, or a woman, such as Algeria's Assia Djebar and Doris Lessing of Britain.

According to Gunilla Sandin, the program director for the Gothenburg Book Fair, the biggest in Sweden, gender is not taken into consideration by Academy members.

But, she added, "even if you should not base your literary judgment on gender, it is about time for a woman to get the prize."

South Korean poet Ko Un, author Cees Noteboom of the Netherlands and Carlos Fuentes of Mexico are also on pundits' lips, as are Indian-born British author Salman Rushdie and Poland's literary journalist Ryszard Kapuscinski.

On the online betting site Ladbrokes.com, punters are putting their money on Orhan Pamuk, who tops the list with 3.5-to-1 odds, ahead of Adonis at 6-to-1, Ryszard Kapuscinski at 6-to-1, Joyce Carol Oates at 7-to-1, Ko Un and Philip Roth at 11-to-1 ... and far behind, US singer-songwriter Bob Dylan at 51-to-1.

Like the other Nobels, the Literature Prize comes with a cheque for 10 million kronor (1.37 million dollars, 1.07 million euros).

smo/po/rl

Nobel-literature

AFP 101127 GMT 10 06

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