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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270401
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 27 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 06N95W TO 05N100W TO 09N110W TO 07N134W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND
90W...AND FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 11N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CORNER N OF 25N W
OF130W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ELSEWHERE N OF 20N W OF 110W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N E OF 110W OVER MEXICO. IN THE TROPICS
ZONAL FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 140W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF 110W FROM 05N TO 20N.
ON THE SURFACE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO
NEAR 31N110W TO W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N115W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ELSEWHERE N OF 15N W OF 110W. WINDS ARE PRESENTLY 20 TO
25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 28N
AND 31N. THESE WIND AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE IN 06 HOURS.
W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND N OF THE FRONT...WINDS
ARE 20 KT OR LESS...HOWEVER A SET OF NW SWELL MIXING WITH LONG
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
10 FT WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N116W TO 15N110W
TO 10N120W TO 06N140W TO 22N140W TO 30N135W TO 30N116W. THE
FRONT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE SET OF NW SWELL CONTINUES
TO PROPAGATE SE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE
ITCZ TO THE S CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS OR COVERAGE ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL REFERENCED ABOVE IS
REACHING ALL THE WAY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE COASTS OF
MEXICO ALL THE WAY S TO ECUADOR. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 FT OR GREATER
BECOMING CONFINED TO S OF THE EQUATOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY TRANQUIL WIND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
GULFS OF TEHUANTEPEC...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 110W. RECENT
SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK BUT PRONOUNCED
MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA E OF 100W
AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND THE
ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 85W.
$$
FORMOSA
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sun Apr 27 2014 12:02AM EDT
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