AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

000

AXPZ20 KNHC 030232

TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0405 UTC THU APR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS

BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND

METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENTLY NOT IDENTIFIABLE. ITCZ AXIS

EXTENDS FROM 08N90W TO 04N102W TO 05N108W TO 02N116W TO 07N126W

THEN RESUMES AT 06N132W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SIMILAR

CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 110W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH

SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WHILE NEARLY

ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 18N AND W OF

110W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 12N116W WITH A

RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO BEYOND 12N140W AND ANOTHER RIDGE

STRETCHING NE ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A JET

STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS RIDING ON THE

NORTH PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 22N140W TO 23N125W

CROSSING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N111W INTO WESTERN

MEXICO. A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE

JET STREAM. A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW

CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 10N90W TO THE EQUATOR

AT 93W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED

RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN

105W AND 110W.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE

AREA NEAR 33N152W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N108W. THE

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND THE HIGH IS PRODUCING AN

AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 19N W OF 130W

AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W...WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10

FT PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO

CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHT

PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES ACROSS MEXICO IS

RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE

PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MAINLY FROM N OF 25N E OF

116W...AS NOTED IN SHIP OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS

AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE N

WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL

INCREASE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES

EASTWARD TO NEAR 31N140W BY FRI EVENING.

A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED ON THE

0000 UTC SURFACE MAP FROM 11N127W TO 05N129W. SOME INVERTED V

PATTERN IS NOTED IN THE CLOUD FIELD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW

SHOWERS ARE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS FORECAST

TO MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING NEAR 130W-131W BY

LATE THU.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL MIXED WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL FROM THE

TRADE WIND FLOW...ALONG WITH A MINOR CONTRIBUTION OF SOUTHERLY

SWELL DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS W OF 110W...WHILE CROSS

EQUATORIAL SW SWELL CAN BE FOUND OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN EPAC

E OF 110W. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL REACH

THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THU BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT NE-E 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT

LATE TONIGHT. THE NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO THEN PULSE AT

15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT FROM THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PANAMA...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS

THIS AREA...AND IS FORECAST TO PULSE AT 15-20 KT LATE EACH NIGHT

THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

GR

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Apr 2 2014 10:32PM EDT

Copyright © The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.