AP-NW--KNHC-NW Tropical Weather Discussion, NW

000

AXNT20 KNHC 260546

TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

205 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL

AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF

SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE

EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE

IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL

ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..

W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH A PAIR OF

FRONTS. THE LEADING FRONT EXTENDS AT 26/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N68W

ALONG 27N71W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF

MEXICO. GALE WARNING IS E OF THIS FRONT N OF 28N BETWEEN 63W-

66W. A SECOND NEWLY FORMED REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS AT

26/0300 UTC THROUGH 32N7W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE WITH

GALE WARNING W OF THIS FRONT N OF 30N BETWEEN 74W-80W. GALE

WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE

HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC

FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THU AFTERNOON WITHIN

90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS

FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE

DETAILS.

E ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 30N E OF 13W ALONG THE

COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER

ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC

NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N16W TO 4N18W WHERE THE ITCZ

BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W THEN N OF THE

EQUATOR 33W S OF 1N THEN BACK S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39. CLUSTERS

OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO

S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION

IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N13W TO 3N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD

FRONT AT 26/0300 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 21N90W 21N93W THEN S INTO MEXICO

NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE S OF 23N. A SURFACE

RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH

OVER MISSOURI. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF

THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. COLD

FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE

WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT

PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF TONIGHT

AND WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE W GULF BY

THU AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY FRI.

CARIBBEAN...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W ANCHORED IN

THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E

CARIBBEAN E OF 73W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF

THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER

THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W

CUBA NEAR 23N81W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE N

YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE

W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N83W

TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE

SURFACE TROUGH. THE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS

INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE

CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE

FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N BY WED. THE FRONT WILL

GRADUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO

NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND

THE FRONT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI

INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND

TONIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. W ATLC

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND EXTEND JUST N OF THE ISLAND

STRETCHING FROM E OF THE ISLAND TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEFORE

BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA

AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE

THU. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY FRI. MOISTURE

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND REMAIN

THROUGH FRI BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED INTO THE

WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC DIPS S ACROSS THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT

ENTERS THE REGION AT 26/0300 UTC NEAR 32N68W ALONG 27N71W ACROSS

THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W THEN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE GULF OF

MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM

31N64W TO 26N68W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND

WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 24N-28N. A SECOND

REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N74W AND

EXTENDS ALONG 29N77W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR

MELBOURNE. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE

FRONTS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A

REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W

ALONG 29N52W TO BEYOND 32N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF

50W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB

HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. FAR W ATLC REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL

MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA MERGING WITH THE LEADING FRONT LATE

WED. THIS MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N56W ALONG 22N65W TO

THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE THU. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY

DISSIPATE BY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE E

CROSSING N OF AREA THU AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT

HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

PAW

Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Mar 26 2014 1:47AM EDT

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