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141
AXPZ20 KNHC 161006
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAR 16 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
THROUGH MON. A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL SPILL S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LEADING
TO THE ONSET OF STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS
STARTING EARLY MON AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EARLY ON MON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 10 FT IN
GULF EARLY ON MON...AND TO 13 FT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THIS NEXT
GALE EVENT WILL BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS IT IS EXPECTED TO LAST
TO DAYBREAK TUE BEFORE WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY TUE AFTERNOON.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N98W TO 05N111W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05N111W TO 03N124W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 104W-
111W.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW THE U.S. TO SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 22N120W...AND TO AN UPPER LOW AT 16N127W. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES SE TO NEAR 08N121W. TO ITS NW...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS WITHIN 900 NM
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCE CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE E OF TROUGH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING CHANNELED EASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD
UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. THE ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE IS AT 07.5N98W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS E
OF THIS ANTICYCLONE ALONG 93W WHILE A RIDGE IS OF THE TROUGH
ALONG 05N...E TO A SMALL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR E OF
ABOUT 101W WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 04N-12N AND
E OF 101W.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1029 MB HIGH IS WELL N OF THE AREA AT 36N128W
WITH A RIDGE SW THROUGH 32N133W TO NEAR 23N140W. HIGH PRES
COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 15N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ALONG A POSITION FROM 07N93W TO 02N97W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60-75 NM W OF THE TROUGH
FROM 02N-06N. A LARGE NW SWELL TRAIN WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS
OF 8 TO 11 FT HAS ARRIVED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA ALONG A LINE FROM 32N129W TO 16N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM NEAR 24N113W
TO 14N117W BY LATE MON NIGHT WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.
OTHER GAP WINDS...
A SUBSTANTIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NW
MEXICO AND THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS
OF 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF FROM 25-30 KT TODAY...AND NW 20-25
KT WINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 8
FT...HOWEVER WITH A GRADUAL BUILDING TREND THROUGH TONIGHT AT
WHICH TIME NW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM 25N-27N. WINDS
RAPIDLY DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT EARLY ON MON.
N WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA...AND S TO 06N
WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8
FT.
$$
AGUIRRE
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Sun Mar 16 2014 6:06AM EDT
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