Poll shows top issues for voters heading into midterms

SALT LAKE CITY — With just about five weeks to go until the 2026 November midterm elections, voters overwhelmingly said the issues most affecting their decision in the voting booth are inflation and the U.S. economy.

According to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics survey, conducted by Morning Consult, the top issues in the upcoming election are related to affordability, both for voters in Utah and nationwide.

Experts said that it's largely unsurprising that voters say affordability issues are top of mind this year. While recent national trends show it to be a driving force in all elections, this year's midterms come as the U.S. enters its seventh month of war with Iran, which led to sharp increases in the price of gas.

Global oil supply has been constricted by limited passage through the Strait of Hormuz, causing gas prices to jump by more than 40% since the start of the war in late February. Mike Kofoed, an economics professor at the University of Tennessee, explained that high gas prices are a unique symbol about the war that Americans have felt repeatedly for months.

"Housing is something I buy once, and then it kind of becomes my fixed rent and I get adjusted to it," he said. "The problem with oil and gas is I see that price every day as I drive down the road. I feel that cost every week … at the gas pump. Even though it's not necessarily a huge share of a consumer's budget, it becomes a constant pain point."

According to the American Automobile Association's latest national average, a gallon of regular gasoline sits at $4.47 per gallon. In Utah, the average per gallon is even higher at $4.97. It's the highest prices have been since 2022 inflation caused an all-time record high of $5.01 per gallon.

Kofoed explained that voters tend to have a short-term memory. They cast ballots based on issues that have impacted their lives in recent days, weeks or months, rather than policies enacted at the start of the year or months before.

War is inflationary no matter which side your country is on, so it's not surprising voters say they will vote to try and bring those costs down, Kofoed said.

In Utah, 53% of voters said inflation and 51% said the economy and job creation are "extremely important" issues for them to consider when voting this fall. Nationally, it's nearly the same, with 55% who say inflation and 54% who say the economy and jobs will influence their vote.

Affordability and Iran tied together

While President Donald Trump has maintained since the start of the war that it was a necessary operation to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, the data shows Americans are growing tired of the war in the Middle East and Trump's inability to end it.

For example, according to data from the Deseret News-Hinckley Institute surveys, Utahns have grown increasingly disillusioned with the president. In January, his approval rating among Utahns was at 51%. In September, it was at 43%.

Kofoed argued that he thinks Americans are frustrated about the high prices seen at the gas pump and it feels like it might be a "self-inflicted wound." Normally, when the country goes to war, there's a run-up where Congress and the president prepare the American people for what they're going to see happen.

When Trump launched the military operation earlier this year, he claimed the excursion would last just a few weeks. The president has maintained the operation was necessary to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, but experts say he's deadlocked into a difficult spot with Iranian leadership. Kofoed said he didn't think there was much "salesmanship" done for justifying the war to the American people, which is why surveys show they're souring on the conflict.

"I think what is going on here is when we say we're getting into a military conflict with a country of 100 million people, whose capital is the size of Paris, it's not going to be that we can annihilate them in two weeks," he said. "And so, if we're going to set that expectation, and then voters don't see that expectation come to fruition, they're going to say 'Why am I paying this excess cost when I don't see the benefit of this military excursion?'"

While Utahns and voters nationwide were nearly equally likely to say that the economy and inflation were going to have the biggest impact on how they vote this November, who they say will do a better job to fix the economy differs.

According to the Utah survey, 44% of voters in the Beehive State say the Republican Party is best suited to do a better job with the economy and the cost of living, compared to 29% saying Democrats.

Nationally, however, 40% of voters say they trust the Democratic Party to do a better job on the economy and cost of living, compared to 34% for Republicans.

The same trend holds true when voters were asked if an election for a congressional seat in their district were held today, which candidate would they vote for. In Utah, voters were more likely to say they'd cast a ballot for the Republican candidate while nationally, voters say they'd rather vote for a Democratic candidate.

Kofoed said Utah has always been an "interesting place politically." The Republican Party in the state has been able to differentiate itself from Trump and MAGA Republicans in many ways, with elected officials who are willing to break from the party line.

The results show that Utahns generally still believe that the Republican Party knows how to handle the economy best and would earn their vote if a ballot had to be cast today.

Kofoed said Utahns can see that Utah representatives are "different from Donald Trump" but voters nationally don't have the "same story" which might be why more voters in the nationwide survey say they think Democrats are better suited to fix the economy and earn their vote.

Voters in the national survey showed dissatisfaction with the Trump administration and Republican Party more than Utah voters. It's a trend that's held true for incumbents in midterm elections. Historically, the party that controls Congress loses seats in the midterm elections. For example, in the 2018 midterm races held during Trump's first term he lost a net of 40 seats in the House.

It's something Trump was hoping to avoid by kickstarting a nationwide redistricting fight last year, but likely something he can't outrun as Democrats see a fighting chance to flip the House and Senate to their control.

Trump and his team know that Democrats see a pathway to victory, so he and other top administration officials like Vice President JD Vance have told voters to "pretend" he's on the ballot. While Trump can't run again, his agenda is still up for a referendum with voters and the GOP wants to keep its dominance on Capitol Hill.

Kofoed said he doesn't think the president's strategy of telling voters to pretend he's on the ballot will help Trump come November. The pains from the Iran war are already "baked in," at least for the next five weeks before the midterms.

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