Aspen bets on manufacturing rebound, obesity drug push for growth

JOHANNESBURG, Sept 2 — Aspen Pharmacare forecast strong double-digit earnings growth for fiscal 2027 on Wednesday, as the ​South African drugmaker bet on a sharp recovery in its manufacturing business and the global rollout of its generic weight-loss medicines.

The company said manufacturing would be the primary ‌driver of growth in the year ahead, and guided for group normalised earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of ⁠at least 9 billion rand ($561 million) on a ​constant currency basis.

That is up from 7.7 ⁠billion rand it reported on Wednesday for the year ended June 30.

Combined with anticipated net interest ‌savings of 1.2 billion ‌rand, this is expected to drive "substantial" double-digit growth in normalised headline earnings per ⁠share (NHEPS), it said.

In the reporting period, NHEPS jumped 28% on ⁠a constant currency basis, helped by strong demand for obesity and diabetes treatment Mounjaro in South Africa, which Aspen distributes for Eli Lilly, and improving profitability in its manufacturing business.

The South African market for GLP-1 medicines has grown to nearly 3 billion rand, with Mounjaro accounting for more than half of sales, Aspen CEO Stephen Saad told Reuters, ‌underscoring the rapid adoption of obesity and diabetes treatments in the ​country.

He said the forecast more-than-doubling in manufacturing core profit reflected rising volumes at Aspen's South African plants, driven in part by human insulin production, as well as higher volumes and a broader product portfolio at its French operation.

GLOBAL ROLLOUT OF GENERIC SEMAGLUTIDE

Commercial Pharmaceuticals, Aspen's largest unit, is expected to deliver mid-single-digit revenue and EBITDA growth, led by emerging markets growth and the start of a global rollout of its generic semaglutide, the active ingredient ​found in Novo Nordisk's blockbuster Ozempic.

The rollout will initially rely on third-party manufacturers, including an existing arrangement with ‌India's Dr Reddy's Laboratories ‌for Canada ⁠and some other markets, Saad said.

"Once we know we've got a product and it works, and we know it takes volumes, then we would consider moving (production) to our facility," he said.

Aspen is targeting South Africa, parts of Latin America including Brazil, and the Middle East, with launch timing dependent ‌on regulatory approvals, he added.

Group ​revenue was flat at 34.9 billion rand, as growth ‌in its commercial pharmaceuticals business ⁠offset weaker manufacturing ​sales after the loss of an mRNA contract.

($1 = 16.0471 rand

(Reporting by Nqobile Dludla, Editing by Kirsten Donovan ​and Jan Harvey)

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