Estimated read time: 6-7 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — California is the most common state from whence new Utah residents arrive, according to the 2020 Census.
Reports in both California and Utah note this migration has become a flashpoint for tensions about politics, culture, congestion and housing prices.
Demographics tell a complicated story about how and why Utah's population is rising.
The American Community Survey earlier this month released state-to-state migration data using official U.S. Census numbers.
"This number shows that about 18,600 people moved to Utah from California in 2022," said Emily Harris, a senior demographer at the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. "That's about the same amount that moved here in 2015, at the start of when things started to really pick up growthwise in Utah. If you go to 2012, that number is around 15,000. If you go to 2010, that number is about 12,000. So you see this ramping up, but again, you just really started to see a lot more people leaving California, in general, in this time period."
Primarily migration
Between 2010 and 2020, Utah was the fastest-growing state in the U.S., according to the 2020 Census. While migration from out of state accounted for 35% of growth, 65% of the growth was from Utah births outpacing deaths.
KSL.com reports on the 2021 Census note that Utah was the youngest state in the U.S., with a median age of 31.8 years compared to the national average of 38.8 years.
However, fertility has been declining in every state in the U.S. for years, and Utah dropped from the most fertile state in the nation to the fourth-most fertile between 2010 and 2020, according to research from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.
Utah still has the most births of any state in the Intermountain West, but its fertility rate declined by nearly 22 percent in the 2010s, which was the seventh-fastest fertility decline in the nation.
"Over the last two or three years, we've actually seen a shift because natural increase has continued to decline due to people having less children and more people dying as our population gets older," Harris said. "Net migration has actually become the primary driver of Utah's growth."
There's a huge influx of people moving here over the last seven or eight years and Utah is trying to catch up with that.
– Emily Harris, U. demographer
"This last year and the 2022 estimates from the Census Bureau, they indicated that Utah's growth had kind of slowed quite a bit," Harris continued. "We don't necessarily think that the estimate that they came up with is 100% accurate, but it is a good number to be able to make comparisons to other places. So, I mean, Utah is similar to some other Intermountain West states. Idaho is growing really fast. Nevada is growing really fast. Texas and Florida are also growing really fast."
"I wouldn't necessarily compare these states to Utah," Harris said. "But again, a lot of the places and states that are growing really fast, are growing really fast because lots of people are moving there. So I'm sure that if you went and looked at the news and a lot of these other states, you would see very similar headlines and narratives about lots of people moving here — I bet Californians would be mentioned."
Business policy drives migration
While state officials have been frustrated by Californians moving to Utah, local and national reports consistently point to Utah's strong economic policy and employment as drivers of migration to the state.
A 2021 economic review by Utah's Department of Workforce Services notes that, since 2010, Silicon Slopes has seen a higher degree of employment growth relative to its population, making it an emerging employment center. Lehi in particular experienced a 52% population growth in just 10 years.
Similarly, St. George was ranked the fastest-growing metro in the U.S. in 2021 and 2022 by the U.S. Census, and a 2023 WalletHub study ranked Washington, in southern Utah, the best small city in America to start a business.
The St. George Spectrum and St. George News have also reported St. George has seen consistent job growth and gross domestic product increases in recent years, fitting the definition of a "boomtown."
Overall, in 2021 the state of Utah had three job openings for every unemployed Utahn.
"I definitely think that the state has created an environment where they are bringing headquarters and businesses in and making that very friendly," Harris said. "And that's been a very deliberate choice. I think that that's generally a good thing."
"But again, I think because of how fast Utah has grown recently, (growth) may have been an unanticipated consequence of a lot of that industry and employment growth as well," she said. "If you're bringing more employment and job opportunities in the state, that's going to bring more people into the state to fill those jobs."
"There will be internal Utahns who will fill those positions," she added, "but if there are more positions than there are people, then you're going to have more people moving in from other places."
Growth will continue – regardless of how people feel about it
"Salt Lake County actually has a pretty low growth rate. Salt Lake County has geographic constraints, so it can't really grow that fast," Harris explained. "If we're looking at fast-growing counties, Utah County would be one of those counties. St. George definitely is fast-growing."
Asked whether the growth will ever stop, Harris said, "People aren't just going to have a mass exodus and leave, barring some kind of disaster or something like that."
"I certainly understand that if you've lived here for a really long time, that you might miss how things used to be. I don't know if that's necessarily a healthy way to live your life at this point. Growth will eventually slow. Utah is not going to just exponentially grow like this forever," she continued. "But also with where we are in terms of population, it's not going to decline substantially."
Harris advises people pay attention to what planners are doing in their areas.
"I think right now, Utah is just in a bit of growing pains, honestly," she said. "There's a huge influx of people moving here over the last seven or eight years and Utah is trying to catch up with that. That's not a short-term process. It's something that takes time."
In-state migration is also occurring, with people moving from Salt Lake County to Tooele, Utah, Davis and Weber counties.
"So the people that are moving in next to you might not be from another state — they might be from the county next door," Harris said. "So the question is more complicated than just you know, California and moving in."
