Pick Six Preview: Utah the more trusted team in first road team of season

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah finished the nonconference portion of its schedule with a perfect 3-0 record after shutting out Utah State 33-0 in the Battle of the Brothers game, where they outgained the Aggies by 300 yards and the game was never in doubt.

Devon Dampier threw two touchdowns to Braden Pegan, taking advantage of a coaching mistake.

"If you're going to play him one-on-one, that's what's going to happen," said Dampier after getting Pegan was targeted 11 times on eight catches and had 122 yards and a pair of scores. Utah has not had a 1,000-yard receiver since 2013, but Pegan has been dominant so far and could break the drought.

Now, Utah shifts to Big 12 play and starts with a road trip to Ames, Iowa, against a new-look Iowa State program (1:30 p.m. MT, FOX).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): Utah 56.5 (25th of 68 Power 4) | Iowa State 57.2 (24th)
2025 season: Utah 72.3 (10th) | Iowa State 54.9 (32nd)
2026 season: Utah 69.0 (13th) | Iowa State 47.2 (50th)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah to finish third in the Big 12 race, and the Utes earned a preseason Top 25 ranking with my No. 22 spot. They have surged up to No. 13 and are in a dead heat for the Big 12's top spot with Texas Tech and BYU. Game Grader currently has Utah projected as favorites in all remaining games.

Longtime Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell left to take the Penn State job and took 15 starters with him in the biggest Power Four to Power Four exodus in recent memory. It appeared to be the definition of a "rebuilding season," and I selected Iowa State in last place in the preview magazine. The Cyclones are 2-1, handled their weaker opponents by a combined 93-17, and lost a field goal decision to Iowa 16-13.

Utah with the ball

Utah offense: 47.3 points/game, 9th in FBS
Iowa State defense: 11 points/game, 13th in FBS

Dampier and Pegan led the way, but Utah continued its creative two-quarterback packages with Byrd Ficklin alongside Dampier in the backfield. Ficklin got five carries, including his 9-yard touchdown where he showed patience and vision as a runner. Wayshawn Parker was held in check (10 carries for 33 yards), but Daniel Bray exploded for a 63-yard touchdown.

The new offensive line has impressed so far and should only improve with more game experience. Through three games, Utah is one of the few lines to rank in the top 25 of both my OL run push and pass protection metrics, allowing a sack on just 2% of attempts.

Iowa State's defense has surprised so far and also ranks in the top 25 of almost all of my statistical categories. Head coach Jimmy Rogers brought several of his defenders with him from Washington State, where last year that defense puzzled Ole Miss and Virginia and almost beat both ranked teams.

It is strength vs. strength when Utah runs the ball at this front seven, but an area that could make the difference is Pegan on downfield passes, as Iowa State ranks just 50th defending against explosive passing.

Iowa State with the ball

Iowa State offense: 35.3 points/game, 52nd in FBS
Utah defense: 8 points/game allowed, 6th in FBS

Morgan Scalley's defense dominated all three nonconference opponents, and did so with aggressive playcalling and elite coverage on the outsides.

"We're pretty tight on coverage and want to be able to make teams one-dimensional, force them into longer-yard situations where they have to throw," Scalley said after Saturday's win.

That will likely be the formula again here against an Iowa State team that is run-first and ranks just 122nd in passing offense — 62nd in QB rating, and bottom 15 in my opponent-adjusted number. This side of the ball is a clear mismatch favoring Utah's defense.

Iowa State operates at the slowest tempo in Power Four at just 32 seconds per play, so if Utah can get an early lead, it may force Iowa State out of its comfort zone and lead to forced throws and mistakes.

Game prediction

Through three games, Iowa State looks better than originally forecasted back in the preview magazine. It appears their defense will keep them competitive in Big 12 play, and their non-AQ and FCS transfers are getting up to speed.

Utah has also impressed: the lines of scrimmage look rebuilt, the offense is super-creative, and a legit All-Big 12 receiver emerged on the outside.

Utah has been more dynamic so far, is the stronger team and more trusted program at this point, and will open Big 12 play with a road win.

Utah 27 | Iowa State 17

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