Week 4 picks: Oregon handles USC, Utah rolls, Cal beats Clemson

Welcome the Hotline's weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the most intriguing matchups across the West and the top games nationally. Betting lines are courtesy of VegasInsider.com unless noted otherwise. (Games involving FCS teams not included.) I went 6-5-1 last week and am 15-20-1 for the season. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren't.

Oregon's hotly-anticipated duel with USC is one of two matchups of former Pac-12 teams Saturday in the late-afternoon TV window. The other will unfold 1,100 miles away on the Palouse, where Arizona visits Washington State in the first game of a home-and-home series.

The feline affair serves multiple purposes, allowing the Cougars to host a power conference opponent familiar to their fans and offering the Wildcats the chance to satisfy a Big 12 scheduling requirement.

The conference's media rights agreement with ESPN and Fox stipulates that each team must play 10 games annually against Power Four opponents: nine in conference, one out of conference.

Because Arizona and WSU agreed to their series before the former officially left the Pac-12 for the Big 12 in August 2024, the Cougars qualify as a Power Four opponent. (The same standard applies to Oregon State, which faced Texas Tech and Houston earlier this season.)

But like so much else about the sport, the future of scheduling agreements between former Pac-12 schools now in different leagues is uncertain.

UCLA is under contract to play Cal for the rest of the decade and has a game with Utah in four years.

Arizona State has a two-year series with Stanford scheduled for the early 2030s.

And two ancient Northwest rivalries, the Apple Cup and Civil War, are in various stages of existence.

But that's the extent of the non-conference inventory matching former Pac-12 teams, according to the website FBschedules.com, which tracks non-conferences series across the FBS and FCS.

A slew of games that seemingly make sense due to shared histories, geographic proximity and the location of alumni bases are not, at this point, lining future schedules of former Pac-12 peers.

Hopefully, that will change if the College Football Playoff takes the necessary steps to ensure quality non-conference inventory throughout the Power Four leagues.

The field is expected to double in size to 24 teams as early as next season. With that, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC could implement standards designed to incentivize teams to craft rigorous non-conference schedules in much the same fashion the NCAA Tournament selection process rewards teams for high-level (e.g., Quadrant I) games outside of league play.

That could be problematic for Washington State, Oregon State and other schools in the rebuilt Pac-12. They would effectively be cast into purgatory as high-risk opponents (threats to win the game) that do not satisfy CFP scheduling requirements.

But for the 10 former Pac-12 schools now scattered across the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten, a barrage of home-and-home series sprouting up in the late 2020s and early 2030s could prove beneficial.

There's a fascinating alternative, too: NIL-driven matchups at neutral sites that mirror the multi-team events so popular in college basketball in November and December.

Why not match UCLA against Arizona State or Utah against Washington in Las Vegas — even better: make it a double-header — with sponsorship revenue going to each team's NIL efforts?

A version of that model was put to use a few weeks ago, in fact.

Auburn was supposed to host Baylor but moved the game to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, allowing the Peach Bowl "to provide opportunities for promotional appearances for Auburn players promoting ticket sales and ancillary events," according to ESPN's report last year.

Admittedly, there are a barrage of hurdles. The game(s) would need a sponsor to offer the NIL opportunities. The schools would need availability within schedules that have limited flexibility. And the coaches would need a competitive reason to follow the more challenging path.

As with most other aspects of college football, it's largely about willpower — about the schools committing to solutions that serve both their fans and the game writ large. College football is best when doubling down on regional roots, on historic connections. But the decision-makers must have a clearly defined incentive structure.

We aren't confident. By the early 2030s, non-conference matchups between former Pac-12 schools could go the way of the Dodo.

If the CFP does the right thing once expansion becomes official, then perhaps the schools will embrace an opportunity to elevate the sport across the region.

To the Week 4 picks ...

(All times Pacific)

Clemson (-1) at Cal

Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: Absolutely nothing screams ACC football quite like Clemson playing in Berkeley on a Friday night at 10:30 p.m. Eastern ... and the Bears rolling to a decisive victory. Pick: Cal

San Diego State (+3) at Toledo

Kickoff: 9 a.m. on CBS Sports Network

Comment: Combine the long trip with the early kickoff and a quality opponent — not to mention SDSU's woeful aerial game — and this has the ingredients for an intra-Group of Six wipeout. Pick: Toledo

UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland

Kickoff: 10:30 a.m. on Big Ten Network

Comment: The Hotline doesn't plan to begin taking the Terps seriously if they win. But we definitely will stop taking the Bruins seriously if they lose. Pick: UCLA

Boise State (-7) at Western Michigan

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2

Comment: Massive game in the Group of Six, with the winner assuming the pole position in the chase for the CFP automatic bid. Both teams struggled last week against inferior opponents: WMU edged Rice while Boise State had to beat back South Dakota. We suspect both had one eye on this showdown. Pick: Western Michigan

Iowa (+5.5) at Michigan

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: First team to 14 wins. And covers. Pick: Iowa

Utah (-8) at Iowa State

Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox

Comment: Utah's high-powered offense (47.3 points per game) hits the road for the first time and will encounter a well-drilled defense that should frustrate the Utes for two or three quarters before Byrd Ficklin blows the game open. Pick: Utah

Oklahoma State (+1.5) at West Virginia

Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1

Comment: How will West Virginia handle the afterglow from its upset of Virginia? Our hunch: Not well enough to suit coach Rich Rodriguez. The winner should be taken seriously as a Big 12 contender. Pick: Oklahoma State

Texas A&M (+8.5) at LSU

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC

Comment: With both teams coming off losses, this effectively stands as a playoff-elimination game — and the sport is better for it. With a 24-team CFP, the drama would be cut in half. Pick: LSU

Oregon (-3) at USC

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC

Comment: The most significant regular-season West Coast matchup since Oregon and Washington tangled in the last year of the old Pac-12. The stakes are particularly high for USC coach Lincoln Riley's job security, and for Oregon's playoff prospects. We aren't convinced the Trojans have improved enough on defense to finally slay their nemesis. Pick: Oregon

Arizona (-10) at Washington State

Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS

Comment: The line initially felt a bit high. But the more we drilled into WSU's offensive offense, the easier it became to justify a double-digit spread. The Cougars have scored 17 points in two games against Power Four teams (Washington and Kansas State) that are comparable in personnel to the Wildcats. Pick: Arizona

Missouri (+6) at Mississippi State

Kickoff: 4:45 p.m. on SEC Network

Comment: If you haven't seen MSU's Kamario Taylor, this is a good opportunity to watch one of the most gifted quarterbacks in the country. And for that reason, the Bulldogs are the sleepiest of sleepers to make the playoff. Pick: Mississippi State

Oregon State (-10.5) at UTEP

Kickoff: 6 p.m. on MW+

Comment: The Beavers are trending toward an upside surprise this season with transfer quarterback Braden Atkinson. The Miners are the Miners. Tough to envision anything other than a comfortable win for the visitors. Pick: Oregon State

Georgia Tech (-3) at Stanford

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

Comment: This is Stanford's best chance all season for a conference victory — the Yellow Jackets are struggling on offense and extremely vulnerable — but the total of 47.5 is more enticing than the spread. And in case there was any question, we like the Under. Pick: Stanford

Minnesota (-9.5) at Washington

Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox

Comment: Despite their well-documented struggles in Weeks 1 and 2, the Huskies should handle Minnesota with relative ease. If they don't, well, it might be time for a red alert in Seattle. Pick: Washington

Straight-up winners: Cal, Toledo, UCLA, Boise State, Michigan, Utah, Oklahoma State, LSU, Oregon, Arizona, Mississippi State, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington

Five-star special: Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have been ultra-impressive thus far. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy last week.

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