Pick Six Previews: A more proven BYU should have no trouble against TCU

PROVO — BYU finished with a perfect slate in September, going into the bye week with a 3-0 record and No. 10 Associated Press ranking.

The program is on a 26-4 run — the best since the 1984 national title — and they have done it with powerful lines of scrimmage, a disruptive defense, and excellent coaching.

BYU already notched a Big 12 win over Arizona by forcing a fourth down stop in the red zone and then connecting on a vertical shot to Legend Glasker to set up the game-sealing touchdown. They are back in Big 12 play now with a road trip to former WAC and Mountain West foe TCU (5 p.m. MT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2023-25): BYU 55.3 (28th of 68 Power 4) | TCU 56.1 (26th)
2025 season: BYU 63.4 (19th) | TCU 56.4 (30th)
2026 season: BYU 69.3 (12th) | TCU 51.4 (43rd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected BYU to finish second in the Big 12 race, and the Cougars earned a preseason top 25 ranking with my No. 17 spot. After the 3-0 start, BYU has moved up to No. 12.

TCU, however, has been a major disappointment so far. I selected the Horned Frogs fourth in the Big 12 — and No. 25 nationally — back in the preview magazine, but they opened up with a loss to North Carolina in the Ireland game, then lost again Saturday 21-13 at UCF.

Even the team's non-AQ game against Arkansas State was closer than the final score would suggest. TCU has been downgraded from No. 25 to No. 43 in Game Grader.

BYU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

BYU offense: 3rd of 68 Power 4
TCU defense: 25th of 68 Power 4

It will be strength on strength when BYU has the ball, as they currently lead the nation in my OL run push metric, and rank No. 4 in yards/play, No. 3 in yards/carry, and No. 16 in QB rating. TCU's defense ranks in the top 25 of most stat categories, as well, and they have done their job this season.

BYU's offense has flashed more explosiveness than in past years with the new addition of Legend Glasker at receiver to pair with the power runners in the backfield, quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin. They are in the top 25 of both my explosive passing and explosive rushing metrics after placing below average in both in 2025.

This side will be decided on whether BYU can open up its pass game, as TCU is relatively weaker against the pass than the run, and if so it will force defenders out of the box and eventually allow BYU to get a consistent run push.

Last week, UCF's backup Keyone Jenkins went 14-of-15 passing and set the school record for completion percentage; Bachmeier should do just fine.

TCU with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted rankings via Pick Six Previews)

TCU offense: 57th of 68 Power 4
BYU defense: 10th of 68 Power 4

Even if you consider the other side of the ball a push, this side is where BYU really separates in this matchup. TCU's offense has struggled and is a far cry from the usual Sonny Dykes up-tempo, spread offenses.

This offseason he hired UConn offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis to install a more under-center, pro-style, run-heavy offense. That has not clicked at all, and TCU is dead last in my opponent-adjusted rushing offense.

When the Horned Frogs are forced to throw on predictable second-and-longs and third-and-longs, Harvard transfer Jayden Craig has struggled. They did get back injured star receiver Jordan Dwyer, and he made some highlight reel catches, but Craig has made several mistakes each game; and simply put, the offense looks broken.

BYU will be the toughest defense TCU has faced so far. This was a top unit in 2025, they returned most of their starters, plus added in top linebacker transfer Cade Uluave. So far they rank in the top 25 of most stat categories, and even those are a bit misleading, because the backups and reserves gave up 16 points late in the Colorado State win.

Game prediction

BYU will limit the TCU offense — in fact, TCU has really limited themselves so far due to countless drive-killing penalties, drops, and the poor decision-making from Craig. Until he puts together a full four-quarter game without turnovers/mistakes, Craig and the TCU offense cannot be trusted.

BYU is the more proven, talented team on both sides of the ball, and they are fresh off a bye week, while TCU comes off a physical Big 12 opening loss. BYU will win in Fort Worth for this first time since 2006, and will notch a school-record third straight 4-0 start.

BYU 27 | TCU 17

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