Pick Six Previews: A look at BYU on the bye week

PROVO — BYU enters October with a perfect 3-0 record and have lived up to high preseason expectations so far. Combined with the 2024 and 2025 seasons, BYU is currently on a 26-4 run, which is the best since the 1984 national title.

BYU beat Utah Tech and Colorado State by a combined score of 104-30 and the starters were pulled in the second halves of games. The Colorado State final score is a bit misleading as the Rams piled on 16 points late in the game against the BYU reserves.

In its Big 12 league opener, BYU beat Arizona 28-17 after head coach Kalani Sitake's halftime adjustments. After the break, they held Arizona to just 82 yards and no points, and the defense made a critical fourth-down stop just inches from the line to gain. Then, Bear Bachmeier threw a 61-yard bomb to Legend Glasker, which led to the game-sealing score.

As we pause the weekly game previews for BYU's bye week, we'll look back at their progress key stat categories, as well as look at their new projected game results via Pick Six PLUS.

Explosive passing

2025: 72nd of 136 FBS teams
2026 Bye Week: 23rd of 138 FBS Teams

Last season, BYU was below average in long-yardage, explosive passing. So far with Bachmeier in his second season as the starter, they have surged all the way up to No. 23 in FBS with the aforementioned game-changing play in the Arizona game as the headliner.

Not only has Bachmeier shown off his arm strength, but the emergence of freshman Legend Glasker has added a new dynamic to the offense. Prior to this weekend's games, Glasker's 270 receiving yards led all Power Four freshmen, and was fifth in the Big 12 overall.

But his per-catch average is even more impressive — 24.5 yards/catch — which ranked second in Power Four (min. 10 receptions). BYU had three pass catchers earn All-Big 12 honors last year, all three departed, but Glasker is an instant boost to one of the only transitional rooms from 2025 to 2026.

QB rating

2025: 62nd of 136 FBS teams
2026 bye week: 16th of 138 FBS Teams

Touchdown-interception ratio

2025: 63rd of 136 FBS teams
2026 bye week: 59th of 138 FBS Teams

BYU was average — 62nd and 63rd in FBS — in the quarterback efficiency stats last year. Bachmeier is off to an improved start in his second season, and BYU surged all the way up to No. 16 in QB rating so far.

The touchdown-to-interception ratio ranking is worse, but that does include a pick from backup Treyson Bourget. Bachmeier's 6-1 ratio would rank 25th nationally so far.

Offensive line run push

2025: 33rd of 136 FBS teams
2026 bye week: 1st of 138 FBS Teams

After an offensive line collapse in 2023, new line coach TJ Woods led a major turnaround in 2024 and maintained a top-40 performance again in 2025. The physicality along the lines of scrimmage has been a major feature of BYU's rise over the past two-plus seasons.

BYU needed to find three new full-time starters in fall camp, and Woods did it again. BYU leads the entire nation in my OL run push metric, and they are one of three Big 12 lines to rank in the national top 40 in both my OL run push and pass protection sack rate (along with Houston and Utah).

3rd down defense

2025: 19th of 136 FBS teams
2026 bye week: 110th of 138 FBS Teams

Out of my 35 stat categories, there is only one in which BYU is ranked below average nationally. Through three games, BYU is ranked 110th in third down defense, allowing opponents to convert on a high 44%.

Coordinator Kelly Poppinga noted that red zone breakdowns and penalties are the areas of emphasis during the bye week, but third down defense is often related to those, and is one of the critical "keys to the game" stats.

2026 schedule projection (via Pick Six PLUS)

Here at the bye week, BYU is 3-0 and is projected as favorites in seven of the nine remaining games. Our Game Grader formula has BYU as double-digit favorites against Iowa State, at UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, at Kansas, and Cincinnati. BYU is a slight favorite at TCU, a slight underdog at Utah, and about an 8-point dog at Notre Dame.

This projection would have BYU finishing 10-2, with an 8-1 Big 12 record, which will put them on the short list for spots in the league title game. These projections are shifting each week at Pick Six PLUS as new game data comes in.

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